The Runner Sports

Arizona Coyotes Draft Lottery Luck

This year the Arizona Coyotes have a 10.3% chance

Let’s just say when you miss out on talent like Connor McDavid and Arizona-born Auston Matthews you think your luck has got to change. When you’re in Las Vegas and the dice continues to come up craps, doesn’t it figure that your luck must eventually change?

For the Arizona Coyotes’ sake, it may just be their turn to win the big jackpot called the NHL Draft Lottery held April 29 in Toronto shortly after 8 pm ET. Speaking of Las Vegas, the newly added 31st team to the NHL Vegas Golden Knights will be sharing the same odds that the Coyotes have to win that coveted first overall selection. Ahead of both of them will be the Colorado Avalanche with an 18% chance, and the Vancouver Canucks with 12.1% odds.

To accommodate the addition of a 15th lottery team, the odds for all other participating clubs have been reduced proportionally from the odds utilized in last year’s lottery.

Odds last year

Compare the odds from last year’s draft lottery, per sportsnet.ca, which had the Coyotes’ chances of the first overall pick at just 6.5%. Then it went to 6.9% for the second pick, and finally 7.2% for the third overall pick. They eventually chose seventh where they had a 27.9% chance. As it turns out the Yotes managed to come away with a prize in Clayton Keller. Still, he’s no Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, or even a Matthew Tkachuk.

A cool simulator of the draft can be found on nhllotterysimulator.com. When I tried my luck at it, the results were: Vegas Golden Knights coming away with the first overall pick. The Florida Panthers finished second, and the Arizona Coyotes finished third. Then, to prove the odds of math to a more extreme test, I ran the simulator 10 times to see what results would come up for the Coyotes. The highest pick was the second, and the lowest the seventh. To average them out it came to 4.9, or the fifth overall pick.

Just in case you wondered how long it took to get the Coyotes the first pick, try 30… which is not close to the 10.3% projection.

Which position or player should the Coyotes choose?

Whenever you ask any general manager of any sport, their answer is the canned, “we’ll take the best player available.” If you read TRS’s goaltending, defense, and offense analyses, you would see who this team needs to draft to improve in these areas. Defense certainly needs to be addressed, although the Coyotes have some good, young talent. Goaltending will improve if defense improves. Offense is an area which needs the most attention. Dave Tippett‘s new responsibilities include player personnel input, and it could be he’s looking to plug the hole at center ice. Trading Martin Hanzal created a gap which needs filling.

How about… say Matt Duchene coming to the Arizona Coyotes?

Will the Coyotes go with a defenseman like Timothy Liljegren from Rogle in Sweden? Or if they fall in the top three will they have a shot at forwards Nolan Patrick or  Nico Hischier?. The talented forward tallied 38 goals and 48 assists in 57 QMJHL regular-season games this year.

Not quite sure, let’s roll the dice to see.

William Grigsby
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William Grigsby

I was born in Chicago, and have been following hockey my whole life. I moved to Arizona in 1974, and have been an Arizona Coyotes fan from the time they first moved here in 1996. I feel I can bring a new perspective to the team. I hope you will enjoy what I write.
William Grigsby
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