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UFC Fight Night 110 DraftKings Lineup Post Weigh-In

“G’day Mates” All fighters have weighed in and are ready to rock on Saturday. One fighter missed weight, Chan-Mi Jeon came in two pounds above the strawweight limit of 116 pounds. She will forfeit 20% of her show purse to her opponent. The is shaping up to be an interesting card where we have multiple fighters making the long journey to New Zealand where they will take on multiple Kiwi and Aussie fighters making their UFC debuts. Jet lag and the drastic change in time zone has been known to effect some fighters in the past. I have taken into consideration these factors when making my picks this time around.

1. Ion Cutelaba $8,900

“The Hulk” is facing off against Henrique da Silva in a light heavyweight bout that for all intents and purposes should be a beat down. Cutelaba pushes an extreme pace for the light heavyweight division. Ion is still just 23 years old, and although just 1-2 in the UFC, has shown potential. Cutelaba can chain his strikes into takedowns and has shown the ability to tire out his opponents. The bad news is that he too has gassed in fights like the most recent decision loss to Jared Cannonier. Ion has shown the ability to hurt all of his previous opponents except for the ranked Cirkunov. I expect Cutelaba to come out of the gate firing off punches which will lead to a takedown and eventually ground and pound. Da Silva has shown a poor gas tank in the past and his BBJ background gives him confidence off of his back. That will be his downfall in this fight against Cutelaba. If there isn’t a finish in the first round, Cutelaba will spend most of the fight in top position where he can land strikes and score. At $8,900 he is well priced with finish potential against an opponent who hasn’t looked all that good during his UFC tenure.

 

2. Tim Elliott $8,700

Time Elliot is coming off of one of the most successful DraftKings MMA performances in recent memory. 175.5 points in a decision win against Luis Smolka makes Elliott a strong play against Ben Nguyen. Elliott will have the height and reach advantage against Nguyen in this fight. The key to victory for Tim Elliott here will be his ability to chain takedowns and advances into submission attempts. Nguyen has shown a propensity to gas in his fights and Elliott has an elite gas tank even for the flyweight division. Elliott will likely absorb some early damage to get inside and start his barrage of takedowns and submission attempts. Even if Tim Elliott scores half the points he did in his last fight, fantasy owners will be happy. I just don’t think the knockout power of Nguyen will phase Elliott, who is huge for the division. I think Ben Nguyen will win the first round if Elliott can’t get it to the ground. Rounds two and three will be all Elliott once Nguyen starts to gas and can’t keep Tim off of him. I predict a second or third round submission for Tim Elliott. There is huge value for Elliott at $8,700 considering the potential point total he can rack up. Expect Elliott to be highly owned so pairing him with lesser owned fighters can be a key to placing above the field.

 

3. Daniel Kelly $7,200

The ultimate dad-bod Daniel Kelly is 6-1 in his UFC career and has been the underdog in all of his fights with the top promotion. A former judo Olympian, Kelly is excellent in the clinch and on the ground. He is a southpaw that often lends him a striking advantage. Not in this fight, as Brunson is also a southpaw, so we could see a clash of heads or some sloppy striking exchanges that could lead to Kelly capitalizing on an off-balance Brunson and take him down. Kelly is a Mixed Martial Arts unicorn, he seems to win despite all of the hype surrounding the fighters facing off against him. I think this fight will be no different. Brunson is 0-2 in his last pair of fights, getting knocked out by Whitaker and losing a close decision to Anderson Silva. I think Brunson is going to come out like he did against Whitaker, rush into striking range trying to land a big overhand left. Kelly should be able to avoid the punch get a body lock and begin to work in the range he is most comfortable. I think Kelly is a strong DraftKings play because Brunson is the favorite and Kelly is still a relative unknown, so ownership should be low. Kelly will wear Brunson out who has shown that he will gas and begin to slow as the fight progresses. Kelly upsets a favorite again by late round stoppage or judge’s decision.

 

4. Mark Hunt $8,000

This is another sleeper pick as I am sure a majority of the DraftKings community will be high on Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis. Lewis is on a six-fight win streak and getting ever so close to a heavyweight title shot. Momentum is on his side. Hunt is coming off of a brutal jump knee knockout from Overeem roughly three months ago. Conventional wisdom would say that Lewis is a lock against Hunt. I am going the opposite as part of my DraftKings strategy. I believe Hunt will not be owned to a large extent, that means if he upsets The Black Beast my lineup will have a huge advantage over the field. Lewis, despite the six-fight win streak, has not looked all that good in his recent fights. Most recently he almost got stopped by Travis Browne multiple times in their fight earlier this year. Luckily, Browne has by far the worst chin in MMA, and Lewis was able to land a few shots that put him out. Hunt’s chin is not what it used to be but is still vastly better than Browne’s. I honestly think Hunt can land one of his signature walk-off overhand rights. Lewis is a more than capable striker but has left his chin a little high when entering into the pocket to land. Hunt has decades more experience than Lewis, I expect him to be patient and strike when he sees the opening. Also, I think Hunt will be cautious having been knocked out just three months ago so he won’t be willing to just exchange with Lewis. This may frustrate Lewis causing him to rush in leaving an opening for Hunt to capitalize.

 

5. Vinc Pinchel $7,800

Vinc Pinchel is on a two-fight win streak, looking to go into hostile waters against a hometown boy to increase his win streak to three. Pinchel has scored over 110.0 DraftKings fantasy points in his last two fights and I will be looking for that same result again. Pinchel has 16 takedowns in his last two fights, the guy is a fantasy stat monster. This fight against Brown will probably be his toughest test to date regarding level of opposition but Vinc should be up to the task. Brown is also on a two-fight win streak but has looked less impressive than Pinchel. Winning a split decision against a gassed out John Tuck where Brown was out landed on the feet and knocking out an old battle-weary Cesar Arzamendia isn’t saying much. I think Pinchel comes in the fresher, hungrier, and overall better fighter. Jet lag may zap a bit of Pinchel’s energy but even if he only lands five takedowns in the fight, that should be more than enough to get the nod. Brown has a lot of miles on him and this is the fight is where it catches up with him. Pinchel out wrestles brown and finishes the fight early in the third round due to ground and pound. Pinchel will likely be owned by a decent portion of the field but is still a strong GPP and cash game play due to his moderate price point.

 

6. Alexander Volkanovski $9,300

Alexander Volkanovski is the highest price DraftKings fighter this weekend. He is also one of the largest favorites on the card to win. Volkanovski has a tougher task in Hirota than the oddsmakers think, casting him as a heavy favorite. Volkanovski is dropping down in weight class from lightweight so he should bring his size and power down with him. This drop down may also zap a bit of his gas tank. Hirota is a great wrestler who loves to lock up in the clinch. Alexander “The Great” is a former professional rugby player, so he should be able to keep Hirota off of him using sheer size and athleticism. If Alexander can avoid the submission I think this is his fight to win. Hirota just doesn’t throw enough volume to win a decision if it goes there. Volkanovski will be one of the heavier owned fighters on the card. Fit him in if you have the budget, fade him if you don’t want to sacrifice mid level opportunity with other fighters that have more of a chance to finish.

Chris Grabowski

Chris Grabowski

Content Contributor at The Runner Sports
Former Division 1 athlete turned combat sports enthusiast. Combat sports can be described as human problem solving with dire physical consequences.
Chris Grabowski

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  • Randy Surles

    Your article comforts me that I’m not so crazy after all; LOL! I was beginning to think I was the only one wanting him to just sling it into the stands when nobody’s open and he’s under duress. It surely would save a lot of heartache. Nice article!