Miami Marlins Trade Rumors: Trading From Strength.

According to Fox Sports 1’s Jon Morosi, the Miami Marlins are gauging the interests of other teams on starting pitcher Jacob Turner. Turner came to the Marlins as part of the July 2012 trade that sent Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez to the Detroit Tigers. The Fish also received catcher Rob Brantly and starting pitcher Brian Flynn in that deal. Turner was selected by the Tigers in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft.

As a Marlin, Turner has gone 4-12 with a 3.64 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 160.2 innings. He has shown stretches of very promising results, but has struggled with consistently locating his pitches. Last season, Turner was 3-8 with a 3.74 ERA. Despite a decent ERA, advanced metrics show that he has actually been more lucky than good. His 4.12 walks per nine innings were high, and his FIP and xFIP show that he is due for some regression (FIP was 4.43, xFIP 4.71.)

The reason the Miami Marlins feel as though they can trade Jacob Turner is because of the team’s one true strength: starting pitching. Coming into Spring Training, the team knew there would be some decisions to make regarding the 25 man roster. There were a few bench spots to be had, the bullpen needed to be sorted out, and the fifth starter role was set for a spring time competition.

The first four spots in the rotation were set to go back to those who held them down for the majority of the 2013 season. Jose Fernandez is the ace of the staff, followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, and Jacob Turner. Last season, Tom Koehler held down the fifth spot for most of the season. This year however, Koehler was reportedly going to have to defend his spot from lefties Brad Hand, Brian Flynn, and top prospect Andrew Heaney. Right hander Kevin Slowey, who also received a few starts last season, was on the radar as well. As Spring Training has progressed, Flynn and Heaney have been sent to the minors. Slowey, Koehler, and Hand have all pitched very well, making the decision much more difficult for Marlins manager Mike Redmond. As the incumbent, Koehler should have the upper hand, but Brad Hand is out of options and therefore cannot be sent back down to the minors without first going through waivers. Jacob Turner, who has been outpitched by the fifth starter candidates, is also out of options and cannot be sent down without clearing waivers first.

So, this leaves the Marlins in a place where they have a surplus of Major League ready starting pitchers. A great “problem” to have, of course, but still one that needs a solution. Since the majority of the Marlins bullpen roles are already taken, simply moving starters into the bullpen to avoid having to send them down would only create a similarly problematic logjam in the pen. Instead, the Marlins have been calling around to other teams to see if anyone is interested in Jacob Turner. According to Morosi, the Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks are both possible fits for Turner. I believe the Oakland Athletics would also be a good fit, as would the Texas Rangers. All four of these teams have recently experienced injuries to key starting pitchers and could use a guy like Turner to take the spots of the injured arms.

What do the Marlins need in terms of a trade? According to FanGraphs, the Marlins project to have a very weak infield. Out of all 30 Major League Baseball teams, these are the projected rankings for the Miami Marlins infield in 2014:

Catcher- 29^th

First Base- 30^th

Second Base- 27^th

Shortstop- 30^th

Third Base- 30^th

I think Derek Dietrich could hold his own at second base and do a bit better than projected, and with Colin Moran waiting in the wings, third base is not a long term need. First base and shortstop, however, are positions where the Marlins will struggle for a long time if new players aren’t acquired. The team signed Garrett Jones this offseason to man first base for two years, but he doesn’t project to hit too much (his Spring Training numbers haven’t shown anything to prove otherwise) and his defense has been below average throughout his career. Mark Canha is an interesting prospect in the Marlins system, but he’s far from a “sure thing” at this point. Kyle Jensen (if he changes positions) could also be an intriguing internal candidate for first base, but again he would be just as likely to fail as he would be to succeed at the big league level. For this season, Jeff Baker could play first base, but like Jones, he is not a long term answer. The Marlins should try to find a team that wants Turner and would be willing to give up a somewhat decent first base prospect. A guy like Jacob Turner does not bring back a Jon Singleton, CJ Cron, or Dan Vogelbach. What the Marlins should hope for if they indeed go for a first baseman would be someone who could take over next season, so a lower level prospect with good tools that just might not be ready to play at the highest level quite yet.

Another glaring hole in the Marlins’ lineup is shortstop. Adeiny Hechavarria performed very poorly last season, both offensively and defensively. Shortstop would seemingly be an easier position to fill, especially since more teams seem to be willing to trade shortstop talent than they are first base talent. For the sake of this article, let’s look at the two teams mentioned by Jon Morosi.

The Diamondbacks came into Spring Training knowing that their 2014 starting shortstop would be either Didi Gregorius or Chris Owings. It seems likely now that Owings will win the job and Gregorius will be traded. Gregorius was good for a 1.4 bWAR last season, not great by any means, but much better than anything the Marlins have at that position. In fact, that would have made Gregorius the third best position player on the team in 2013. Gregorius is a decent fit for the Marlins. He may not be a long term answer at the position, but he offers an immediate upgrade and should continue his solid play for at least a few seasons. More importantly, the two teams seem to match up in terms of need.

The Mariners also have two shortstops fighting for their starting job in Nick Franklin and Brad Miller. Miller seems to have the best chance at winning the job at this point which makes Franklin the one likely to be traded. Franklin put up a respectable 2.3 rWAR last season in only 102 games. Again, this number is not make him an MVP or even an All-Star, but it would be a tremendous improvement over the -2.1 that Hechavarria put up last season.

Odds are the Marlins won’t get too much for Jacob Turner, especially given the fact that other teams know that he or at least another pitcher more or less has to be traded before Opening Day. Hopefully, they make sure that they at least get someone who can contribute in a position the team needs. 2014 won’t be a playoff season for the Miami Marlins, but it can absolutely be a step towards competing in 2015. A smart trade here could greatly contribute to that.

Author: David Marcillo

David has been a Marlins fan since 1993. ’97 and ’03 were nice. Best of times, worst of times, mediocre times in between.

You can follow David on Twitter: @DavidMarcillo77 or you can email: [email protected]

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