Miami Marlins Predictions Revisited: The Good, The Bad, and The Fishy. (Position Players)

Before this Miami Marlins baseball season started, I wrote an article predicting some individual statistics along with overall team statistics.

 

Some people agreed with me, some fervently disagreed, most didn’t care enough to form an opinion. Now that the season is over, let’s revisit those predictions and see how I did. This article will cover position players only, with an upcoming article covering the pitching staff.

 

Starting Lineup:

C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Predicted: .233, 15 HR, 56 RBI

Actual: .220, 11 HR, 44 RBI

Verdict: I predicted a rough season for Salty in his first year in the National League. I was right, but he was even worse than I thought he’d be. He started the season off on a hot streak, but was essentially worthless at the plate for most of the year. His defense was also tough to watch, and he ended up being worth 0 wins according to rWAR. With J.T. Realmuto putting up good numbers at AA, Salty will need to improve next year or he may see himself sitting out a lot more games than he’d like.

 

1B- Garrett Jones

Predicted: .244, 21 HR, 68 RBI

Actual: .246, 15 HR, 53 RBI

Verdict: I’ll call this a partial win, because I got the batting average almost exactly right. Jones was another player I predicted wouldn’t do as well as the Fish wanted, but I thought he’d show a little more power than 15 HR worth. He was horribly misused by manager Mike Redmond at the beginning of the season, as he was allowed to start against lefty pitchers despite a career batting average against lefties of under .200. Justin Bour got a lot of work in at first base toward the end of the season, and that may be a sign of things to come for next year, assuming the Marlins are okay with paying Jones handsomely to sit on the bench.

 

2B- Derek Dietrich (I predicted Rafael Furcal would miss most of the season)

Predicted: .227, 14 HR, 44 RBI

Actual: .228, 5 HR, 17 RBI (only 49 games)

Verdict: I was right in predicting that Rafael Furcal would make no impact on this team. He played in 9 games and amassed a grand total of 6 hits. I thought that Dietrich would be the one to log the most time at second base in place of Furcal, but instead it was a whirlwind of Jeff Baker, Jordany Valdespin, Ed Lucas, and Donovan Solano with Solano appearing to “win” the job by the end of the year. Solano is not good at baseball, so this is absolutely a position that the Marlins will need to address, whether it be by turning to the somewhat recently acquired Kike Hernandez or by giving the job back to the player that deserved it all along, Derek Dietrich.

 

SS- Adeiny Hechavarria

Predicted: .221, 6 HR, 36 RBI

Actual: .276, 1 HR, 34 RBI

Verdict: Well, I got the RBI almost exactly right. Hech had a much better season offensively than I expected, but don’t let that decent batting average fool you, he was still bad. He was the worst player in baseball in 2013, so he definitely improved in 2014, but there are still at least a dozen shortstops I would rather have on my team. Long overrated defensively by the “eye test”, he finished the year with a 0.6 rWAR (0.3 defensive WAR), much improved over his awful -1.6 from the previous year.

 

3B- Casey McGehee

Predicted: .255, 17 HR, 59 RBI

Actual: .287, 4 HR, 76 RBI

Verdict: Way off, I was way off on this one. Casey came out of the gate absolutely on fire, even earning his way onto the NL All Star Final Vote. Followers of advanced statistics, however, knew that would all soon come crashing down. And crash down it did, as McGehee struggled to do anything right offensively in the second half, nearly setting the record for double plays in the process. I didn’t think he’d hit for a decent average, but I also thought he’d hit for more power. Shows what I know. McGehee seems entrenched as the third baseman going into next year, so Marlins fans will have to hope for more of the magic from the first half and less of the realism from the second half.

 

LF- Christian Yelich

Predicted: .277, 14 HR, 55 RBI

Actual: .284, 9 HR, 54 RBI

Verdict: I did pretty well on this one, just like Yelich did pretty well this season out of the lead off spot. I predicted a little more power from Yelich at the expense of a slightly lower batting average. Overall though, Yelich had an outstanding season for a 22-year-old. He showed incredible plate discipline, seeing more 3-2 counts than anyone except the Cardinals’ Matt Carpenter and also consistently staying near the top of the list for pitches seen per at bat. With continued development, Yelich could quickly and quietly become a superstar player in a stacked Marlins outfield.

 

CF- Marcell Ozuna

Predicted: .259, 15 HR, 66 RBI

Actual: .269, 23 HR, 85 RBI

Verdict: Way off, again. Ozuna had an excellent season with the bat and with the glove (and the arm, of course!) He hit for a higher average than I expected and provided more power as well. Very much an all or nothing type guy, Ozuna also struck out a ton and made himself look bad often. Despite that, he made himself look good a lot of the time too. He ultimately put together a 4.4 rWAR season as a 23-year-old, more than impressive. While Ozuna’s floor is a bit low due to his lack of plate discipline leading to too many strikeouts, his defensive play and offensive upside give him quite a high ceiling as well. He should be fun to watch in the 2015 season.

 

RF- Giancarlo Stanton

Predicted: .279, 37 HR, 93 RBI

Actual: .288, 37 HR, 105 RBI

Verdict: Hey! Another one I did pretty well on. I got the homeruns exactly right, although I very likely would have been wrong had Stanton been able to finish the season on the field. Most likely the second place finisher in the NL MVP vote, Stanton had a monster season, carrying the Miami Marlins to playoff contention into September. After he was hit in the face by a Mike Fiers fastball, Stanton’s season was over and along with it the Marlins’ as well. While his numbers speak for themselves, watching the Marlins try to score runs without Stanton in the lineup for the last few weeks tells you all you need to know about how valuable he is to this ball club. The Fish will reportedly try to sign him to an extension this offseason, but we all know that it’s quite a stretch to believe he’ll be here past next season. Let’s enjoy watching him in 2015 and hope he brings the first MVP award to the Marlins.

Related Posts

• 
  A Short History Of Spring Training Baseball
• 
  Miami Marlins Sign Christian Yelich To A Long-Term Extension
• 
  Fight For Five: The Battle For The Fifth Spot In The Miami Marlins Rotation