After proclaiming this NCAA Tournament was chock heavy, I was pleasantly surprised by the first/second round of action. And not just by the impressive number of upsets in the first day alone, but the fact that almost every single game was close. Which is exactly what people love to see this time of year. In the first day alone there was five one point victories, and another four that were five points or less. And that’s just HALF of the pseudo second round. And while there were no one point games Friday, most were still competitively close.

Bracket busted? No worries, you and about 100% of brackets have been. At this point it’s just fun to sit back and enjoy some good basketball. The aching of watching your bracket teams struggle is already passed for the year all in the first 24 hours. You won’t have to worry about it again for a whole other year.

At this point you might be questioning what I have to say following that first round of action (certainly don’t go look at my whole bracket at this point). But I’m still good for some picks for those of you looking to play some action or moving to some round by round pick ems. I may have disappointed slightly in round one, but I mean this is the beauty of this tournament. You can spend all year watching teams and compiling stats, and go into this tournament confident you know what will happen, only for it to be flipped on top of its head in the second game. But that’s what gravitates people to it, the sheer madness. I am certainly not bothered by a few losses, don’t get me wrong I’d rather be right, but you can’t win them all. Plus it’s not like any of my losses in the round of 64 were by very many points, but close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. Well before that Wyoming game that is.

 

2015 NCAA Tournament Record: 25-11

Round of 64 Record: 23-9

Midwest

1 Kentucky Wildcats vs 8 Cincinnati Bearcats

Despite losing Octavius Ellis to a flagrant 2 foul early in the 2nd half of the game, the Bearcats outlasted a Purdue team that really took advantage of them inside. They were also severely outplayed rebounding, but they capitalized where Purdue fell short.

They will be getting Ellis back, which will be a huge help. His offensive production was significantly missed down the stretch, although it was ultimately not needed. If the Bearcats want to stand a chance against Kentucky, they’re going to need him. And you can’t help but feel for him, a guy who hasn’t had the best past on the court. He was a part of that nasty Cincinnati/Xavier fight a few years ago, and after a small hiatus from the school he returned and seemed to have matured a lot. He seemed very regretful of his momentary lapse of his cool, and was in tears as he exited the arena. At least he gets another shot here.

Kentucky did exactly what was expected against Hampton. They flat-out outclassed them, and at a certain point it was brutal watching. I kept wondering when Calipari was going to call off the hounds, but then I remembered that entire roster is filled with studs. They were by no means perfect, and weren’t the most dominant victors of day one, but did what they needed. Calipari was actually not too pleased with his team’s output, and you have to respect that from a guy who’s aiming for perfection

I think there are a few teams that can at least test Kentucky for a full 40 minutes, but I don’t see the Bearcats standing up to that task. If they run their zone well they can certainly frustrate them at times, but like many others who played a good half against the Cats, I doubt they hold for 40 minutes.

Tyler’s Pick: Kentucky Wildcats

2 Kansas Jayhawks vs 7 Wichita State Shockers

Ever since the bracket was drawn up a lot of people had this as a potential matchup to watch. While both were far superior squads a season ago, they are both quality teams that should give us a heavyweight bout on Sunday.

The Shockers are playing with their eyes set on Kentucky, and while it’s dangerous to look ahead, there is no doubt that’s where their minds wander to. Indiana put up a much better fight on them than I was expecting so if they’re not careful they could easily let this game slip through their fingers. Plus it’s not like the Jayhawks don’t have something to settle with Kentucky too.

Kansas should look to capitalize where the Shockers struggled against the Hoosiers. Indiana shot 11-for-22 from three. When the Shockers finally reacted and played to the outsides, Tom Crean was able to dump the ball to Troy Williams, who when he didn’t score, at least drew the foul. Kansas is even more developed to take advantage of this, with four players who hit multiple threes vs New Mexico St. And when the Shockers react, you dump the ball to Perry Ellis.

As much as I’d love to see the Shockers return the favor to Kentucky, I think Self’s squad will end their hopes of revenge here.

Tyler’s Pick: Kansas Jayhawks

3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs 6 Butler Bulldogs

The Irish were played down to the wire by a Northeastern team that pleasantly exceeding my expectations of them. The Huskies managed to ramp up the offense and go an eye for an eye for a majority of the game. The Irish were a different team without Zach Auguste on the floor, and that is going to be something to be mindful in games going forward. For how effective this team had been scoring points this season, it was almost painful watching the Irish without Auguste.

Butler meanwhile escapes a closer game than their box score will show. Texas had been nipping away at the lead in the closing minutes, and in fact it was a 1 point game under two minutes. But unable to hit on a couple of threes and Butler staying hot at the line, the Longhorns bit the bullet along with many of their Big-12 compadres. Kellen Dunham absolutely went off on in this game and if he has to carry that same workload against the Irish the Bulldogs could be in some trouble. We’ll also have to keep an eye on the developing situation of Roosevelt Jones, who left the game vs Texas with an apparent knee injury and didn’t return, but is expected to play Saturday.

Notre Dame didn’t turn to the three ball often against the Huskies, but I suspect they are a bit more willing to against Butler. They forced 16 turnovers on the Huskies and it was a big reason why they managed to survive that game. However, the Bulldogs were just as effective in disrupting play, forcing 15 TOs on Texas.

If the Irish keep moving the ball like they have all season there should be little to worry about. They were dominated on the glass against the Huskies, but even if that’s the case again it’d be hard to imagine this offense doesn’t click to put points up.

Tyler’s Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4 Maryland Terrapins vs 5 West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia was one of the few Big-12 teams to have survived. It was a rough first day of the tournament for the conference and it was nearly just as scary for the Mountaineers. Buffalo came in as a popular upset pick, but thanks to a healthy Juwan Staten, who put up 15 points, the Mountaineers prevailed. It was also a scary game for the Terps, as Valpo shot lights out and in high volume from three.

This should be a fun game even if simply because despite being the higher seed, not many planned on West Virginia being here. Both of these rosters are deep, and the hero of the game could come from any one of the 18 guys that will see big minutes on the court. Both teams spread the love, like your mom back in the 60s, sorry I just had to. But the two big names you’ll really want to focus on are Melo Trimble and Juwan Staten.

I will give the advantage to Maryland on three-point shooting, and they’re a little more effecting using that excellent passing effectively. West Virginia has the size, rebounding, and defensive advantage. They do a great job of getting possession, but fall short on scoring effectively. They’re always there to get their own rebounds and get those second chances though.

Still, I like the Terps here. Both lasted tough opening games, but I think Maryland should have the advantage overall.

Tyler’s Pick: Maryland Terrapins

East

1 Villanova Wildcats vs 8 NC State Wolfpack

The Wildcats went out and torched Lafayette. They bombarded three after three, shooting 11-of-22, 3 of which came from Ryan Arcidiacono. They passed the ball around well, dominated the boards, and limited turnovers en route to their impressive 93-52 win. It was at no point an actual contest.

NC State on the other hand played the sloppiest game you possibly can and still some how win. Even the game winning shot wasn’t sure it wanted to fall. With a handful of opportunists in the final minutes as LSU lay gasping for air, the Pack couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. Yet still somehow BeeJay Anya gets a ball to roll in just before the buzzer. It was his only points of the game.

My original prediction was that somehow NC State was going to come out looking very good and hand the Wildcats a surprise loss. I’m not a 100% I can stick with that, and if you watched their game with LSU you will understand why. My personal bracket is busted for the large part, so I could save some grace and at least correct my wrong doing here and take Nova. Although I’d never forgive myself if I flip-flop and the upset happens.

Kenny Smith made an excellent point about the second game perhaps being the hardest for a 1 seed. You blow past a 16 seed only to meet an 8 or 9 who fought tooth and nail to even get to here. You sit back at all and you can easily get jumped. That was exactly my logic when I originally called this upset, as I still see the Wildcats as the weakest 1 seed in the tournament.

Tyler’s Pick: NC State Wolfpack

2 Virginia Cavaliers vs 7 Michigan State Spartans

A lot of respect to Georgia and Belmont, who gave fans in attendance in Charlotte an afternoon of great games. Both teams played up to their opponents and although both Michigan State and Virginia pulled away in the waning moments, it was still an intense finish. It took a 17-7 run from the Cavs to survive Belmont.

Virginia came into this tournament as one of the best defenses in the country, and although they’ve also rode a long docket of injuries here as well, they are still not to be taken lightly. Belmont will provide a ton of tape for Tom Izzo to work with though. Belmont ran rampant from behind the arc, and while the Cavs withstood the bombing, it could be ugly if the Spartans’ shooters like Danzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes get hot. The two drained a combined 5 from deep against the Bulldogs. And while the injured Justin Anderson made a much better appearance the Cavs are limited on outside threats to Malcolm Brogdan.

This is yet another game that has revenge implications for one team from a year ago. It was a heartbreaking exit for the top seeded Cavs in 2014, and I think Tony Bennett is able to at least extract that vengeance and make a push for the Elite 8.

Tyler’s Pick: Virginia Cavaliers

3 Oklahoma Sooners vs 11 Dayton Flyers

Albany played the Sooners to a much closer game than it mostly felt. Oklahoma escaped with a 69-60 victory, but it felt like they were much more in control than that. Sometimes a 9 point win feels like you were one possession away from losing it, and it just didn’t feel that way. Buddy Hield didn’t disappoint putting 15 points up, but the Sooners did struggle to find their stroke from deep. Shooting just 7-of-24 the Sooners can definitely improve in that area as they move forward.

Very rarely are upsets unwelcomed in the NCAA Tournament. But the Dayton Flyers are receiving some hate here. Despite being a very good team, the Flyers found themselves as the last team into the field. A UConn AAC win would have bumped them according the Selection Committee. They were delegated as a play-in team, which meant they played in their home arena in Dayton, OH. Ok at that point there wasn’t much that could have been done. But the Committee also dropped them to potentially play the Providence Flyers in Columbus, Ohio. The Flyers have won both their games and will now receive an unprecedented near home court advantage normally reserved for the highest of the seeds and will play close to home for a third straight game.

That being said Dayton is at it again. A year after flying into the Elite 8, they look poised to take flight again. They’re streaky outside shooters could put the Sooners in an uncomfortable spot. They have a pair of shooters, but don’t like to heavily relay on it. Despite the Flyers being hit with player cuts and an injury that leaves their most potent offensive weapon unable to practice, this team remains on a tear.

I’m all about that momentum in March and it’d be hard to deny the Flyers are oozing with it. Columbus could get insane on Sunday as a number of teams who aren’t a far drive are slated to do battle. Dayton will surely retain a healthy portion of the stands, which is bad news for the Sooners in what should have been a neutral game. There is no faulting a fan base that travels, but when you’re just an hour down I-70, it hardly seems fair for a double-digit seed.

Tyler’s Pick: Dayton Flyers

4 Louisville Cardinals vs 5 Northern Iowa Panthers

So my spectacular Wyoming upset fell flat. They staged a near rally for a little in the 2nd half, but Northern Iowa was just too much to handle. Note to my future self. Never pick Wyoming for anything. The last time I tried it this nonsense happened:

It might have not been the NCAA Tournament, but nothing good can come from it. I was also too desperate to pull a 12/5 upset out in this tournament, and none happened for the first time since 2007.

Louisville should be absolutely ecstatic to have defeated the Anteaters who played with a lot more heart than they. Not to mention there was definitely a no-call at the end of the game that could have tarnished Pitino’s tournament. They scored just 13 points in the final 11 minutes of the game.

I originally had them meeting Wyoming here and since I’m calling an upset of Villanova I have the Cards going all the way to the Elite 8 in my bracket, but after watching that outing there is no way anybody can have any faith in this team. I’m still not sold on Northern Iowa being a great team, but I think aside from that Wyoming run late in the game, they played a much more complete game.

The problem is once you survive that nail biter, you’re on to a new day. The Cards will come on the floor Sunday knowing they’ve survived a near-death experience. Which will almost certainly help keep their composer.

The Panthers have some snipers, and if they challenge the Cards to run the score up from outside, they will surely win. They also have the superior defense, by and large. I always struggle to pick against Pitino any earlier than the Sweet 16, but I just can’t confidently say they are looking all that good currently.

Tyler’s Pick: Northern Iowa Panthers

West

1 Wisconsin Badgers vs 8 Oregon Ducks

I sat down to finally get a bite to eat today in the middle of the first half until the middle of the 2nd half so granted I missed roughly half the of the Ducks game. But the moments I caught were good. Joseph Young absolutely went off after a bit of a quiet start which overcame a Cowboys lead and sent the Ducks into the break with a 43-39 lead. The 2nd half was spent with the Cowboys fighting for the momentum but anything they gathered the Ducks were able to counter.

Frank Kaminsky and the Badgers did what was expected. The Chanticleers hung around for as long as they could, but heading into half Wisconsin pulled away and didn’t look back. Kaminsky did a little bit of everything, shooting threes, scoring on the block, and flashing the defense even. He finished with a stat line of 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 1 block.

Oregon proved they were capable scorers, but they lack the necessary components to defend the versatility the Badgers bring. You can try to get physical with Frank, but they have Sam Dekker who can burn you from deep. He shot 4-8 from deep, and if he’s not hot again Hayes and Gasser are both options to get going from deep.

I haven’t quite seen anything to make me regret proclaiming the Badgers my likely champions. Arizona is threatening, but we’re still a few games out from even considering that matchup.

Tyler’s Pick: Wisconsin Badgers

 

2 Arizona Wildcats vs 10 Ohio State Buckeyes

This will be a battle of the freshman. Stanley Johnson and D’Angelo Russell are a pair of some of the best freshman in the country, and you can bet they will be active in this game.

Sometimes you see top teams falter in talent a bit when they hit the tournament, but that wasn’t the case for the Wildcats one bit in their opener. They played what in my opinion was the best game of the day and have me oozing at the mouth with joy. They shoot well, they’re physical, and they get in your way & take the ball away from you like a toddler in timeout. And I know they played a quite unimpressive Texas Southern, but those are sometimes the hardest games to play to your talent level.

Ohio State impressed as well. They overcame the full court press of Shaka Smart and VCU, avoided turning the ball over a ton (something that’s plagued them all year) and shot lights out from everywhere on the court. While we’re on it, let me rant about Shaka Smart not calling a timeout at the end of regulation despite having three, a tie ball game, and no shot clock. It was a decision that bit you in the butt my friend.

Arizona (quietly?) looks like one of the big contenders in this tournament. They have me worried about my proclamation that Wisconsin would win it all, but at this point what do my full bracket predictions matter? Not one bit, that’s right. These are two deep rosters with a ton of talent, and this game should be a very fun watch for those looking for something to do Saturday.

Tyler’s Prediction: Arizona Wildcats

4 North Carolina Tar Heels vs 5 Arkansas Razorbacks

The Tar Heels looked like they had their game in the bag, but Harvard just kept creeping back into things down the stretch. So much so that UNC trailed the Crimson briefly with a minute left in the game. North Carolina did everything right here, didn’t over shoot the three and shot very well from there, moved the ball wonderfully and spread the attack, all while limiting the mistakes that can be the end of you. It was just a tournament effort from the Crimson, who have the taste of upset blood left in their mouth from the past two seasons.

And I won’t lie, Arkansas/Wofford was probably the game I caught the least of because I ran into computer issues late into the day. I caught the important part of the second half though. First off a big tip of the hat to Wofford who played a hell of a game. Despite a massive size disadvantage, they managed to outrebound the Razorbacks, and had a few good shots at the end of the game to at least have tied it with time on the clock.

The main concern I have for Arkansas in this next round is how they plan to spread the attack. Offensively they were way too limited to Bobby Portis and Michael Qualls. If you want to beat the Heels you have to find a way to spread them out and be a threat from more than just two guys. The Heels will certainly send a barrage of multiple threats at you, and based solely off the defense on display against Wofford, I doubt Arkansas can hang.

Tyler’s Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels

6 Xavier Musketeers vs 14 Georgia State Panthers

First of all, if the Panthers win anymore insane games we are going to have to start to worry about coach Ron Hunter’s health. He tore his Achilles tendon celebrating his team’s Sun Belt tournament victory and was sporting a nifty little scooter on his way into the stadium, and a wheely chair on the sideline. The man fell out of his seat when his son, RJ Hunter hit a go-ahead three-pointer with three seconds on the clock. Somebody get this guy a bubble suit in case this run continues.

Xavier despite the popular connotation that they’d get bounced in this game, overcame an Ole Miss team that stormed back in the 2nd half of their play-in game with BYU. Using sound play, and excellent perimeter defense, they were able to keep the Rebels from finding the second gear that catapulted them into the tournament.

Dee Davis was a big facilitator for the Musketeers despite dealing with foul trouble for a decent amount of the game and he will need to do the same if they want to advance here. The Musketeers also dominated the glass and they should do the same against the relatively undersized Panthers. If they can get hot from deep they could force the Panthers to utilize the three more than they’re comfortable doing.

I will be honest and say I overlooked the Panthers, but I also came into this tournament knowing that the Bears were shaky at best. I won’t say outright that the Panthers entirely beat the Bears as much as the Bears dropped the ball. They were a mess handling the ball and committed 21 turnovers. That being said let’s not take away all the good things the Panthers did. They didn’t shoot lights out, but hit the shots they needed. RJ Hunter really is an exciting player to watch and I imagine he’ll look to take over again here.

Tyler’s Pick: Xavier Musketeers

South

1 Duke Blue Devils vs 8 San Diego State Aztecs

Aside from two short hiccups, a freshman mental mistake and trying to be too flashy from Jahil Okafor, followed shortly after by a big Robert Morris run that brought a 20 point game to within 10, there should be no complaints from Coach K. They shot the lights out, worked the glass, and pounded it inside. I’ve said and you probably have heard or talked about it yourself, but the Blue Devils have perhaps the easiest path to the Elite 8, and losing Iowa State from the bracket could definitely be the difference that makes this an easy run to the Final Four.

SDSU plays quite physically and that’s about their only hope in walking away with the win here. Duke will tear them apart in transition and after watching the way they shot the three ball, should pose to be too much for the Aztecs. SDSU will either need to commit to double teaming Okafor or keeping spread out. Either way they’re leaving themselves vulnerable somewhere.

Tyler’s Pick: Duke Blue Devils

4 Georgetown Hoyas vs 5 Utah Utes

The Utes survived the potential blitzkrieg of scoring from Stephen F Austin. They shut down the outside shooting and forced them to challenge them in other facets of the game, quite uncomfortably. Although the Lumber Jacks made it interesting the second half, dragging the game out and latching on right up until the final horn, the Utes manage to walk away victorious.

Jakob Poeltl continued to make a name for himself as he was a jack of all trades. Finishing with 8 rebounds, 5 blocks, and 18 points, he stole the spotlight from teammate Delon Wright who was just ever so slightly the more notorious name headed into the match.

After going 1-5 in their last 6 tournament appearances, Georgetown overcame an early scare and finally showed up. They locked down a great scoring Eastern Washington team and found the scoring stroke of their own. Then they came back to Earth. Unable to close out while up big, they allowed Eastern Washington to claw back into a game they were well out of.

Utah should matchup more evenly here, and the early struggles against the Eagles have me worried for Georgetown. Everybody knows they could use a tournament run that extends beyond two games, but I just don’t see it.

Tyler’s Picks: Utah Utes

2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs 7 Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes really won me over. I was a fan of Davidson and I figured that high-octane offense would be good for at least one game if not two. Instead the Hawkeyes came out, matched the offense of what Davidson could have put up, but entirely shut down the Wildcats. They collect their first tournament win since 2001 and there is a lot to be proud of, even after a win over an A10 that exceeded most people’s expectations this season.

North Dakota puts up a good fight against Gonzaga, but ultimately fell short.

I originally predicted Davidson would knock off both Iowa and Gonzaga, but after watching Iowa I am legitimately impressed. Kyle Wiltjer was impressive putting up 23 points and 8 rebounds, but he is set to face a vastly more physical pair of Aaron White and Jarrod Uthoff who should look to abuse the relatively small and weak Zags.

Physicality and defense seems to always catch up to Gonzaga at some point in the tournament, and while I think they’ve made strides to improve those deficiencies, I think they draw the short end of the stick by drawing Iowa.

Mike Gesell was running circles around Davidson and while the Zags’ guards are more stout on the defensive end, I don’t know if I am wowed at their defense. Gonzaga can spread the ball, and if they have any hope in neutralizing Iowa, they need to make sure to succeed where Davidson failed. The Wildcats failed to find anything of a stroke from deep, and while the Zags don’t rely on it as much, they will need to strike when it’s given to them to spread the floor.

Tyler’s Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes

11 UCLA Bruins vs 14 UAB Blazers

I will take the win for UCLA since it was one of my predictions, but man was that almost a scary ending in their game with SMU. It ended up being the right call, but the game-winning goaltending call screamed controversy as it was happening live. The fact that something like goaltending or even anything under two minutes cannot be reviewed seems just flawed. Anytime there is uncertainty to a call it should be reviewable under two minutes. I don’t care if it’s a judgement call. Because sure it’s a judgement call live, but it’s not as if a review can’t defend or refute that call successfully. You can argue that the shot was off target and shouldn’t have been under consideration for goaltending, but when it’s that close to the rim you gotta leave it be. The Bruins also could have saved themselves even being in that spot. They allowed a 19-0 run to happen in the later portion of the 2nd half, and why in the world that final shot was put up when it was is beyond me.

UAB (may their football program rest in peace) has stolen the spotlight of the tournament. In just the second scheduled game of the day, the Blazers surprised what many (including myself) thought was at a minimum an Elite 8 if not further (finals for me) Iowa State. They dominated the offensive boards and gave themselves plenty of opportunity for second-chance baskets. Led by Robert Brown, there was no gimmick to the Blazers’ win. They just flat-out played up to the Cyclones and beat them at their own game.

The Bruins should look to utilize their three-point shooters again. They went 10-20 against SMU and it was their saving grace. When things were looking bad, the Bruins somehow came up with a deep three to put a new spark into their team.

We don’t often see a second/third round matchup with a pair of double-digit seeded teams, but that is exactly what we’ll be getting here. Both teams spread the ball and attack very well, and as exciting as both their first games were, this matchup could be even better.

Tyler’s Pick: UCLA Bruins

Be sure to tune in later today to catch my preview/prediction/recap of the Friday action that will lead into the Round of 32 Sunday games.

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