As the first wave of free agency signings come to a close, the outlook for each team’s draft needs becomes a little clearer. The Atlanta Falcons have signed a lot of players to bolster their depth along the offensive line, as well as adding two new starting OLBs in Brooks Reed and Justin Durant. However, the team failed to add an impact pass rusher and the LG position is still unsettled. With the knowledge that the Falcons will likely be switching to Quinn’s “4-3 under” defense and running more 2-TE sets under Kyle Shanahan, the team has some very glaring needs in the 2015 NFL Draft.

For this draft, I once again used the Fanspeak “On the Clock” Mock Draft Simulator with the Composite big board selected. This board, in my opinion, still provides the most accurate draft positions and creates interesting and varied mocks.

So, without further adieu, I present to you my fourth 2015 NFL Mock Draft. Please hold your applause until the end.

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Atlanta Falcons 2015 Mock Draft #4

Round 1, Pick 8 - DE/OLB Randy Gregory (Nebraska)

The Falcons addressed their desperate need for a pass rush by signing oft-injured DE Adrian Clayborn, rotational DE/OLB O’Brien Schofield, and re-signing middling DE/OLB Kroy Biermann. You are forgiven if those moves don’t inspire much confidence. The Falcons need an impact player at the position, and they get lucky in snagging the one with the most raw talent of them all: DE/OLB Randy Gregory.

Gregory (6’5, 240) is a player with ideal length as a pass rusher that is best suited to a role as a 3-4 OLB (he’d be a perfect fit as either the LEO or SAM in Quinn’s 4-3 under). He’s a strong player with even more room on his frame to bulk up, which he will likely need to do to be successful at the NFL level. Gregory is known for being a stout run defender as well as a gifted pass rusher. He’s incredibly fluid in his hips and can change direction on a dime. Gregory uses his length to get around blockers and to disrupt throwing lanes (4 pass deflections in 2014), and is great at slowing down RBs attempting to get through his gaps. He’s aggressive and explosive in most aspects of his game. Gregory dominated tackles with lesser size or technique, and may have the fastest hands of any pass rusher in the draft. He’s also experienced playing standing up, with his hand in the dirt, and rushing from an ILB position.

While Gregory’s physical traits and attitude are through the roof, his technique is extremely raw. His balance needs work, as he tends to play a little too narrow. Gregory appears to be a little slow off the snap, and he doesn’t explode off the line as someone with his traits should. His instincts and pass rushing moves are undeveloped at this point, and his processing speed is still quite slow. Gregory will need work with a talented NFL coaching staff to help him reach his ceiling, but that ceiling is a perennial Pro Bowl player.

Gregory’s stock has fallen slightly over concerns about his weight, which are incredibly overblown. Gregory could be the second best defensive player in this draft class behind Leonard Williams, and he was viewed as such until the Combine. The bottom line is this: Gregory is a high ceiling/low floor player that has the potential to be a Justin Houston-caliber player for the Falcons. He is just scratching the surface of his talents, and if anyone can help him realize his potential it is Dan Quinn. If he falls to 8, the Falcons should literally run to the podium.

Round 2, Pick 42 - OT Jake Fisher (Oregon)

Having moved on from LG Justin Blalock, the Falcons are without a starter on their offensive line once again. There has been speculation that players like Sam Baker, Peter Konz, or James Stone could potentially play the position, but I’m of the mind that the Falcons should go out and find a talented zone-scheme guy early in the draft. You won’t find a much better fit for a zone scheme than Oregon OT Jake Fisher.

Fisher is an expert zone scheme lineman that has primarily played at tackle (both right and left) during his career. I wrote about Fisher in my Offensive Line Draft Breakdown, and here is what I had to say:

One of the options to replace Blalock could be the ultra-athletic Jake Fisher (6’6, 306), who opened a lot of eyes at the Combine by posting the second-best 40 time (5.01) and the best 3-cone time (7.25) of all offensive linemen. Fisher is a former TE, and he moves with quickness and agility. He is a perfect fit in a zone scheme where his athleticism is able to shine, as he is an impressive blocker at the second level and on stretch plays. Fisher has an excellent understanding of leverage and is a fluid mover: he was very impressive in the Combine drills. He has the footwork to play on the left side and the blocking chops to succeed on the right, and with a little more bulk could easily transition to guard.

The downside to Fisher is that he lacks power and requires good angles to get push on the ground. He was one of the most penalized linemen in college football, with six holding calls alone during the 2014 season. He’s vulnerable to power rushers and will likely need to spend time in the weight room to compete with NFL-caliber players.

Fisher is a great fit at RT or LG for the Falcons, where the new zone blocking scheme should mask some of his strength concerns. He’s a great athlete and would go a long way towards fixing the Falcons offensive line issues. With some added bulk he could easily slot into the LG spot this season, and his versatility should give the Falcons coaching staff more options in finding the best possible offensive line grouping.

Round 3, Pick 73 - ILB Stephone Anthony (Clemson)

A late 1st/early 2nd round run on ILBs (Kendricks, McKinney, Dawson, and Perryman) had me terrified that the Falcons might lose out on a starter-quality ILB. Luckily, Stephone Anthony made it to the 3rd, and the Falcons get a gifted 3-down LB to challenge Worrilow for the starting position.

Anthony (6’3, 243) is an ILB with ideal size and speed (4.56-forty). He plays fast and furious and is an aggressive tackler. His wrap-up technique is solid and he’s known as a hard worker with a team-first mentality. Anthony is also capable in coverage, showing the ability to take on TEs and RBs out of the backfield. He moves sideline-to-sideline with ease, and takes good pursuit angles to catch faster opponents. A trait that stands out is Anthony’s hands: he has great ball skills for a LB, with several highlight-reel interceptions. He’s good at tracking the QB’s eyes and has the skills to be an effective QB spy and blitzer.

His weaknesses seem to stem from poor hand usage: he has trouble shedding blocks and defeating opponents at the point of attack. Anthony seems to “side-step” blocks rather than take them head on, leaving cut-back opportunities for shifty RBs. While he’s capable in coverage, he’s not particularly good in zone and can be burned by RBs on deeper routes. Anthony seems to have somewhat slow processing speed and can be fooled by play action. His aggressiveness can also get him into trouble: he’ll occasionally attack the line too early, allowing the RB to escape outside.

Anthony has the traits to be a starting 3-down ILB in the NFL, but concerns about his hand usage and poor fit in zone schemes may cause him to fall into the late 2nd/early 3rd. The Falcons have the hand usage master in Dan Quinn, and I have no doubt that those issues can be corrected. Anthony could come in and challenge for the starting MLB role right away, and at worst he’s an above average back-up at a position where the Falcons are seriously lacking depth.

Round 4, Pick 104 - RB David Johnson (Northern Iowa)

Putting aside my man-crush on Javorius Allen (it would be really boring if I just took the same RB in every draft), I now turn your attention to another big bruising running back in David Johnson. The Falcons have only two running backs on the roster in the young, intriguing Devonta Freeman (who should have the starting job in 2015), and the “Human Cheat Code” Antone Smith. They need another guy, and what they lack is a big, short-yardage RB.

David Johnson (6’1, 224) is that big guy. He’s a tough, physical runner that fights through contact and, in the film I watched, was never brought down by only 1 defender. Johnson has good speed (4.50) and was among the most athletic RBs in the Combine this year in just about every drill. But perhaps the most intriguing part of Johnson’s game is his receiving ability. He spent time at WR and when you see him running down the field he legitimately looks like one. Johnson has excellent hands and is a matchup nightmare for LBs. He’s a jump-cut RB with the ability to thrive in a zone blocking scheme. His long speed is excellent, and if he can get out into space he’s difficult to catch and bring down. He also offers something in the return game.

Johnson’s speed, however, is better showcased in space. He’s not particularly quick to burst through the hole and can be caught trying to make cuts too early or too late. His vision is merely average, and Johnson will often look to cut back on his runs instead of following the play. Johnson’s frame presents a big target for defenders, and he can be slowed enough by players getting their hands on him that he is eventually brought down. His pass blocking could use some work and despite his weight room strength, he seems to let players take him down too easily.

A lot of scouts have compared Johnson to Charles Sims. I would say Johnson is a bigger, more physical version of Sims that can offer more in the ground game. Johnson would provide the Falcons with a complimentary piece to Freeman and Smith that can contribute in short-yardage situations and as a pass catcher. He could go as early as the 3rd, but Johnson would be an excellent value pick for the Falcons in the 4th.

Round 5, Pick 130 - WR Chris Conley (Georgia)

I wrote about Chris Conley in my WR Draft Breakdown, and at this point in the draft he’s a tremendous value. Here’s what I had to say:

Conley is a big, fast WR that needs to work on a few finer points of the position. He is a solid route runner that uses his surprising speed to fool DBs into giving him a smaller cushion, allowing him to create a lot of separation. He’s a deep threat with good acceleration and tracking skills, and an ability to adjust his path to complete the tough catches. Conley has excellent hands, showing his ability as a “hands-catcher” on his tape and also impressing in receiving drills at the Combine. He has knowledge of a variety of different routes, and also has found success finding the open spaces in zone coverage. Has the strength to succeed as a run-blocker.

However, Conley doesn’t run the cleanest routes and could stand to improve in that area. He struggles against press coverage and bigger DBs have given him fits at the line of scrimmage. Despite his athleticism, he’s never flashed much ability in space or out of the backfield. Conley isn’t all that dangerous after the catch and doesn’t provide much as an underneath or slot presence. His production was never very good while at Georgia, but that can possibly be attributed to the run-heavy scheme.

Conley is a good fit for a team looking to develop an outside receiver in the short-term, AKA the Falcons. He has the speed and hands to challenge down the field, and his off-the-charts athleticism means that with a little seasoning, he could become a good or even great receiver in the NFL. All indications are that he’s also a high character guy with a team-first mentality. He fits the mold of what the Falcons want, and could spend a season developing behind Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson.

Round 6, Pick 169 - TE MyCole Pruitt (Southern Illinois)

Even though the Falcons just signed two new TEs in Jacob Tamme and Tony Moeaki, there still isn’t a great receiving threat on the roster. If Atlanta wants a developmental prospect, you won’t find a more intriguing one than MyCole Pruitt. His draft stock has been fluctuating wildly lately, but he’s a tremendous value in the 6th round. I covered Pruitt in my TE Draft Breakdown, and here’s what I had to say about the highly productive receiver:

MyCole Pruitt is without a doubt the most athletic tight end in this year’s draft class. He opened a lot of eyes with his workouts, and his college production is also impressive. Pruitt is an exceptional pass catcher with solid hands that used his athleticism to wreak havoc on opposing defenses. He can make the tough catch in traffic and has a good understanding of zone defenses and how to beat them. Pruitt was one of the only weapons on his college team and still managed to be productive. Can potentially play in-line in the future as he has good strength and decent technique, although he’ll certainly need to work with NFL coaches to compete at the next level.

Pruitt, however, is a little smaller than desired for the position. He has tight hips and lacks lateral agility, making him less of a threat in space than he should be. His route running is sub-par and he struggles to get separation despite his athleticism. Perhaps most alarming is his lack of on-field fire; he doesn’t show a lot of competitiveness as a blocker and plays relatively slowly. His technique as a blocker leaves a lot to be desired, and he’ll likely need time to adjust and learn how to block in the NFL.

Pruitt is an impressive athlete for the position with good hands and football IQ. Teams may be cautious, however, due to concerns about his attitude and effort level both on and off the field. He certainly has the tools to be a starter in the future, but it’s unclear if he has the work ethic to reach those heights. The Falcons need a legitimate receiving threat at the TE position, and with a year or two of work with NFL coaches, Pruitt could become that threat.

Round 7, Pick 200 - FS Justin Cox (Mississippi St.)

The Falcons don’t have a lot of options at free safety currently, with Dezmen Southward potentially being moved to CB and Dwight Lowery not being brought back. Charles Godfrey looks to be the favorite at this point, with the idea of converting Robert Alford to FS also being floated around. Still, Atlanta could use a developmental prospect at the position. Justin Cox is a player with off-the-charts athleticism that fits the mold of the “Earl Thomas center-fielder”.

Cox (6’1, 191) is a lean safety with blazing speed (4.36-forty) and measurables that are among the best of all the 2015 DBs. He’s spent most of his career at CB and has exceptional footwork for the position. Cox has been successful covering slot receivers and TEs over the middle, and he’s shown he can hold up in man coverage. His speed allows him to close on the ball quickly, and he’s able to track down plays on the edges of the field and in space. Cox has good awareness of the QB and has shown some ballhawking traits, with impressive interception numbers (11) in his JUCO years. His speed also allows him to recover and respond to deep plays.

However, Cox has been disappointing since transferring from JUCO. His small frame makes him a limited player in run support, and he’s not a great tackler in space. Despite the interception numbers he doesn’t seem to have great instincts for the position, primarily using his athleticism to make plays. His poor tackling makes him a tough sell as a “last line of defense” player, and he may lack the physicality to be a successful NFL safety. There’s also the matter of his arrest for burglary and domestic violence, which has caused his stock to plummet. The domestic violence charge was later dropped, but questions remain about his character and ability to stay of out trouble.

Cox is a guy with all the athleticism in the world that just hasn’t put it all together yet. If the Falcons come away from their background screening convinced that Cox is alright, he’s an intriguing prospect that could develop into a good deep cover safety. Some mocks have Cox going as early as the 4th round, but I wouldn’t touch him until this late in the draft. Still, as a 7th round guy, Cox possesses legitimate upside. We all know that Seattle turned a bunch of late round picks into the Legion of Boom, so perhaps the Falcons can do the same.

Round 7, Pick 224 - WR Darren Waller (Georgia Tech)

A pure BPA pick at this point in the draft, Darren Waller is a receiver with a borderline elite size/speed combination (6’6, 238, 4.46-forty). He’s a guy with great strength and athleticism that could potentially make the transition to TE. I also wrote about Waller in my WR Draft Breakdown, and here is what I had to say about him:

Waller immediately stands out as a huge target, possessing ideal size for an outside receiver. Couple that with his impressive speed and you get a player than can potentially dominate at the NFL level. He’s shown the ability to block out smaller defenders, using his height to his advantage. Waller has good hands, and presents an almost un-coverable target on jump balls and back shoulder throws. His body control is exceptional for his size, and can be seen in several tip-toe catches along the sidelines and endzone. He’s a legitimate deep threat with incredible vertical speed, and he’s always dangerous enough to take it to the house against single coverage. Waller shows confidence and fearlessness on the field, and will compete for balls in traffic.

Waller just isn’t a polished receiver, however, and lacks several fundamentals of the position. His route running is raw at best, and he will need significant time to learn and practice the finer points of the position at the NFL level. His blocking should be better (seeing as he almost has TE size) and he seemed to struggle in this area in college. He doesn’t create as much separation as he should and can get crowded by smaller defenders. Waller didn’t see many targets over his career, and doesn’t have the production that someone with his measurables should have.

A developmental prospect with real upside, Waller has the size/speed combination that scouts love. He doesn’t have the production or polish, however, and will likely need a season or two of development to reach his full potential. Still, he could be a great #2 option for the Falcons after Roddy White’s retirement, and you don’t see guys with his measurables come around every day. A conversion to TE could also be in the cards, and if he can improve his blocking he’d be a dangerous dual-threat player. If he falls this far, the Falcons should definitely pick him up.

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Summary

As always, I like to consider my drafts a mix of BPA and need. I try not to reach for players and instead get the best value out of each pick. That being said, I believe this draft fills a lot of important needs for the Falcons while also bringing in some developmental talent for the future.

• The Falcons finally find their #1 pass rusher in DE/OLB Randy Gregory, who has the potential to be a Pro Bowl-caliber player in the near future.
• With the addition of OT/OG Jake Fisher, the Falcons suddenly have a lot of options along the OL. Fisher could slot in immediately at LG while providing insurance at both tackle positions, or the team could move him to RT and shuffle other players around.
• Atlanta gets a true 3-down ILB in Stephone Anthony, who can potentially challenge Worrilow for the starting job this season.
• A big, short-yardage back: the Falcons pick up a physical runner in David Johnson, who can also contribute as a receiver and a returner from day 1.
• Two big, athletic WRs: in Chris Conley and Darren Waller the Falcons get two big targets with eye-popping athleticism that could form a dominant group in the next few years.
• A developmental receiving TE in MyCole Pruitt, who has the athletic traits to be a true weapon with an offseason or two of work with NFL coaches.
• A rangy, ultra-athletic FS prospect in Justin Cox, who has the potential to become the deep cover safety that Atlanta will need to play Seattle’s Cover-3 scheme.

What do you guys think of this draft? How does it compare to my previous mocks? Have you lost all faith in the Falcons now that Kroy “Fan-Punching-Bag” Biermann is back on the roster? Keep an eye out in the coming days for my next Draft Breakdown covering, you guessed it, running backs! You can follow me on Twitter @TRSKevinKnight for all the latest Falcons news updates. As always, Rise Up and go Falcons!

Previous 2015 Mock Drafts

Mock Draft #3: Stars Fall

Mock Draft #2: 4-3 Defense

Mock Draft #1: 3-4 Defense

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