One weekend, four days, 48 games, lots of excitement, and we’re onto the Sweet 16 of the 2015 NCAA Tournament. March has lived up to its name, providing us lots of madness, buzzer beaters, and upsets.

I was wrong to proclaim this tournament could come up short in delivering us the shocking upsets we so crave. While chalk still roams free for the most part as only one double-digit seed has survived the venue change, an entire region is without both its 1 and 2 seeds as Villanova and Virginia falling were the headlines that dominated the second half of the weekend games.

After going a righteous 8-for-8 on day one of the round of 32, I was quickly brought back down to Earth on day two as I lost six of the possible eight games on Sunday. I guess I was being a little over zealous on a few. But can you blame me?

I’ve been up and down at this point, and while I usually manage to save some grace on my round by rounds, my initial bracket predictions and my round by round have fared about equally as well. Which is about as well as if you’d kicked a small child into a pool without water wings.

I hope I am at least being useful in providing some occasionally quality information, cause if not I haven’t been of much use in this tournament. But hey, you can’t be a winner every year.

2015 NCAA Tournament Record: 35-17

Midwest

1 Kentucky Wildcats vs 5 West Virginia

Kentucky continues on after a respectable showing from Cincinnati. The Wildcats become the first team in NCAA D-I to ever go 36-0 in a season. But it did not come without challenge. As a few teams have this season the Bearcats stuck around for 3/4 of the game. But Kentucky’s size and roster depth proved too much to handle and the Cats crawled away late in the 2nd half.

I was posed the question of whether I’d ever seen or known of a college basketball team that had as good of an interior defense as Kentucky does, and nothing immediately came to mind. And it’s not just their big men who do a fantastic job. Their guards are formidable perimeter defenders and do an excellent job funneling players into the death trap that is Willie Cauley-Stein and Co. The Wildcats came out of their game with Cincinnati with 9 blocks.

Cincinnati did provide some more quality tape on what you need to be doing to even stick around in a game with Kentucky for 30 minutes. Anybody who can piece that together for a complete 40, and Calipari’s quest for perfection could quickly become tarnished.

After many proclaiming they’d be victims to a first round upset by Buffalo, the Mountaineers dance their way right into the Sweet 16 to face the number one overall seed Kentucky. Perhaps helped just a tad by a head injury that kept Melo Trimble out for Maryland for a decent amount of the game, West Virginia definitely played well and showed why defense wins basketball games.

The only problem for West Virginia is they now face an even far superior defense than their own. Sure the Mountaineers are capable of disrupting the ball and forcing turnovers, but everything they’ve managed to do so far this tournament has derived from their ability to maintain possession. They don’t score well, and better hope their outside shooters stay warm again, because entering the paint without having opened up the perimeter game can be a deadly task against these Wildcats.

Kentucky has yet to play even what I’d call a great basketball game to their standards in this tournament, and that is scary for anybody who has to watch their tapes and formulate a game plan. They were awful from behind the arc against Cincinnati, and luckily they had the size advantage and managed to just dump the ball down into the paint. Despite that size advantage the Cats were out rebounded by Cincy who played a much more physical game knowing that sheer size was working against them.

Like I said before the Bearcats gave a lot of positive tape to how to play Kentucky and at least stick around. Finding that extra means to walk away with a win will be a completely different task.

Tyler’s Pick: Kentucky Wildcats

 

3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs 7 Wichita State Shockers

After having not faced each other since 1993 the inner state battle between Wichita State and Kansas largely held up to the large amount of hype that surrounded it. Eventually though it was the Shockers superior depth of talent and outside shooting that carried them away with the win. Who’d thought you would ever hear that when comparing Kansas and a Missouri Valley Conference team?

The Fighting Irish and Butler also gave an inner state showdown, showing why Indiana basketball is so notorious. And 40 minutes was just not enough. The two went to OT when Butler failed to capitalize on a handful of opportunities to seal the game. Pat Connaughton also provided us with perhaps the block of the tournament to essentially put the Bulldogs in a tough spot to win the game.

This should be a very interesting game. A lot of offense gets packed onto the court, but the defense lacks on either end. Both run out relatively small lineups, with their second unit bringing some height in certain situations. I expect the Shockers to reduce the amount of guys used, they ran nine players out against Kansas, but the majority of that was rotating men to matchup against the Jayhawks height advantage. The two are more evenly matched here and it should just be a blow-by-blow rally to outscore the other.

For fans of high scoring affairs be sure to tune into this one. Two high-octane offenses that are playing with a lot on the line. What isn’t to love?

Tyler’s Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

 

East

 

3 Oklahoma Sooners vs 7 Michigan State Spartans

Overcoming the home court advantage Dayton was somehow blessed with, the Sooners power their way into the Sweet 16 as one of two Big 12 teams remaining, and the only one with an actual fighting chance. Buddy Hield continues to impress while the Sooners continue to fly under the radar in this loaded remaining field of the NCAA Tournament.

Tom Izzo leads yet another squad into the Sweet 16 holding off the injured Cavaliers in what was a thriller of a quality matchup. The Spartans thrived on their outside shooting as Travis Trice shot 4-of-6 from deep and really fired up the Spartans. The Cavs were unable to find the stroke from deep as the injured Justin Anderson returned to his poor ACC tourney shooting.

I didn’t have either here to be honest, but their play certainly defends them being here. Michigan State has balance to their game with inside and outside threats. While they aren’t particularly a tall bunch, the Spartans play physical basketball and dominate down low and on the glass with strength. Although they gave up 18 offensive rebound to Virginia, they can hold their own and aren’t in danger of being severely overpowered.

The Sooners should look to capitalize on that little bit of height advantage they’ll have from Ryan Spangler being on the floor often. They also impressed against Dayton as they matched the Flyers style, picked up the pace and joined in on the shooting parade. They match what you give them, and while not being a master of any one tempo, they’re at least a jack of all.

If the Spartans can remain physical without sacrificing the scoring they should be able to escape with the win here. Expect Oklahoma to make things very interesting though.

Tyler’s Pick: Michigan State

4 Louisville Cardinals vs 8 North Carolina State Wolfpack

Here I am regretting for flip-flopping and taking the Panthers over the Cardinals. Rick Pitino’s team was a fresh reminder of why you can never count them out. After an ugly showing in their opening game, they brushed themselves off and came out Sunday like a new team.

I can at least settle regardless of how the rest of the tournament pans out in having predicted the NC State upset over Villanova. Not many people were even considering a one seed dropping in the opening weekend but I had my eyes set on that matchup from the get-go and it paid off. You gotta take your victories when you can with the NCAA Tournament, cause there is just so much chaos.

Like a boulder rolling downhill Pitino’s Cardinals often times seem to pick up momentum in the NCAA Tournament with each game. Despite the surprise upset vs Villanova I don’t see how the Wolfpack can manage to execute a perfect game twice in a row, and the Cardinals who should now have a decent speed half way down the hill should look to just keep rolling.

Pitino’s team is tough to matchup with. When Harrell and Rozier can get the offense going, they’re a streaky team that find a way to steal in-game momentum at every turn. If Wayne Blackshear can manage to also not go entirely MIA as he seems to do the more important games get, the Cards have a three-headed monster that is quite the battle.

Trevor Lacey and the Pack controlled the boards and dominated the paint against Nova, but they’ll find much more resistance here. Without a ton of three-point shooting threat, the Wolfpack will have to hope their excellent ability to move the ball will yield them uncontested looks here and there.

I should have never abandon the Cards and will return to my original plan of Louisville heading into the Elite 8, although who their foe will be is now the mystery.

Tyler’s Pick: Louisville Cardinals

 

West

1 Wisconsin Badgers vs 4 North Carolina Tar Heels

Oregon’s quality offense exploited some of the issues the Badgers will face going forward. They’re neither a big or strong team, and don’t have much going for them defensively. Their guard play is superb, but if you beat them into the paint you can definitely find success. Frank Kaminsky will waltz upon a block here and there, but if you can get physical with him you can abuse him down low. The other forwards with height will not be putting up too much shot blocking resistance either. They play sound defense and contest baskets, but definitely lack that interior defensive style that can quarantine the paint.

UNC got tested by an Arkansas team that should not be written off. Marcus Paige took over late and helped carry the Heels into the next round. The big concern for them going into the Sweet 16 will be if Kennedy Meeks will be able to go. He left the game with a sprained knee and was reevaluated once the team returned to Chapel Hill. Roy Williams seems to plan to play without Meeks; He did not practice with the team yesterday, and all indications are that Meeks will not play come Thursday. And Meeks was exactly what I described when I explained how you can beat the Badgers. They lose size, rebounding, and post scoring without Meeks, and while they withstood Arkansas without him, he could have been a huge deciding factor in the Sweet 16.

The Badgers won’t get praised as being a very physical team, but they’re big men are very polished offensively, athletic, and capable of scoring in more ways than just backing you down. Without Meeks the Badgers will likely have a field day as Kaminksy, Sam Dekker, and Nigel Hayes all have that much more room to work with in the paint and cutting lanes.

Tyler’s Pick: Wisconsin Badgers

 

 

2 Arizona Wildcats vs 6 Xavier Musketeers

Arizona had won me over and I know a lot of people are expecting a Final Four run out of them at a minimum. However, after watching Ohio State elicit struggles from them with a stifling 2-3 zone, it quickly becomes apparent at the flaws that could plague Sean Miller’s squad. Unable to find a way to penetrate the zone, much of the game was spent with lost possessions on frustrating turnovers as the Wildcats kept slamming away at the zone trying to find the chink. If Ohio State had managed to capitalize much more on the 8 turnovers they created (4 in the first 6 minutes of the game) they could have quickly jumped out in front and it would have been a vastly different game. Instead Arizona weathered the storm, being lucky to have closed the half on a run and despite tremendously poor play go into the break with a 1 point lead. This game was hyped for a pair of freshman, but both struggled mightily. The saving grace for Arizona was TJ McConnell, who diced the zone apart and was the primary reason the Cats were able to score. They also finally started to break the zone late when Gabe York got hot off the bench and finally opened up the outside scoring.

Xavier becomes the Cinderella killer, knocking off the rapidly beloved Georgia State Panthers, their coach on a scooter, and the son that could ball. Xavier has definitely played their two games with a chip on their shoulder. You can say that teams ignore it when the majority of people are picking against them, but that’s a big motivation tool. NC State sure used it citing President Barack Obama’s bracket before their game with Villanova. A team that got under appreciated in a quality Big East that has had a target on their back since their first tip-off, that’s a dangerous concoction.

The problem is as far as talent goes Arizona just far outweighs Xavier. We’ve seen them tested, and damn near toppled by even a basic 2-3 zone. But when this team is clicking it is a dangerous roster full of talented youngsters. They have the height in Kaleb Tarczewski, and run a bigger starting lineup than most brandishing three other forward sized players in Brandon Ashley, Stanley Johnson, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, all while not sacrificing on guard play by giving the reigns to TJ McConnell. The problem is it’s tough to put your best foot forward in the NCAA Tournament. You play consecutive high competition games against quality opponents, something that not many teams do in the regular season.

Arizona has a lot of potential flaws, but even if they come out and play a good game they can handle a lot of opponents.

Tyler’s Pick: Arizona Wildcats

 

South

1 Duke Blue Devils vs 5 Utah Runnin’ Utes

Having lived in Utah for an unhealthy portion of my life, it’s hard to not gravitate towards the Utes on this run. For the first time in my life this Utes teams looks complete. Their move to Pac-12 has elevated their already spectacular football program, but it looks like the basketball program is rapidly catching up. They’ll get the chance to take on one of the most storied teams in college basketball while playing in the Sweet 16. Not bad for a team that not many could have even named one player on at the beginning of the season.

They have their hands full though. Duke is one of the toughest draws you can ever get. Just the sheer mentality of playing Coach K and the Blue Devils has gotten the best of many teams before. Add to that the anticipated number one overall draft pick Jahlil Okafor and a stacked Duke roster and you not only have the mental game to overcome, but the actual challenge of taking on a really good squad.

If there is one flaw to Okafor’s game currently it’s his athleticism. The big guy has flourished in college dominating slightly smaller and unpolished bigs in the paint. But get tough with him and you can win the fight. He’s also not a big threat in transition and will rarely be out front on the break. Defensively he is also a bit of a liability, very raw he still gets pushed around. He needs to bulk up to find future success where he is headed, but for now only a handful of guys can actually matchup with him.

I’ve praised him as I’ve come to adore watching him the couple of times I caught Utes games this year, but Jakob Poeltl isn’t exactly the candidate to get physical with Okafor. The two have very similar games, and it should be interesting to see how they play.

When things get hectic for Duke and its young roster, senior Quinn Cook has been the go to man, and if the Utes can find a way to isolate his play when things get tough while not ignoring Okafor, they just might be able to keep the pressure on Duke long enough to sneak out a win. The problem is that is tough. Duke boslters a well-rounded attack. Okafor dominates all in the paint and often times requires double teams for his flashy offensive play. But the Blue Devils have outside shooting threats, and ignoring Cook, Tyus Jones, and Matt Jones can often be the expressway to getting burned.

As much as I’ve loved watching this Utes team blossom into what they are and reach the Sweet 16, I think the ride ends here.

Tyler’s Pick: Duke Blue Devils

 

2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs 11 UCLA Bruins

A lot of people will still tell you that UCLA doesn’t belong in this tournament, and I don’t think that’s quite fair. The Bruins had a horrible start to their season, and improved with each passing game. They’re a gifted bunch who can spread the attack, as five players are averaging double figures. They’ve got decent size and aren’t at stake to be pushed around either. They’re flying under a lot of people’s radar, but a Sweet 16 bid is no gimmick for this team, and if anybody underestimates them going forward, they will find themselves unhappily surprised.

Gonzaga meanwhile seems to pop the cherry that’s eluded them for quite some time now. Constantly raved as one of the best teams come the NCAA Tournament, this is actually the first time Gonzaga has weathered the opening weekend since 2009 and made it to the Sweet 16. They’ve only made the Elite 8 once in school history so it’d be a big moment for them to see it again this year. They’ve finally seemed to round out some of the big flaws that have plagued their system in years past. They did to Iowa what I was expecting Davidson to do, and let their offense run wild.

UCLA has withstood some barrages, but I’m not quite sure they will be able to handle the Zags if they can get things going. Kyle Wiltjer is a jack of all trades and as the focal point of this offense is all over the place. Outside of being a defensive facilitator for Gonzaga, he does a little bit of it all. Similar to how Kelly Olynyk played, he can get down low and use his height and great footwork to score. But away from the basket he can knock down the mid-range and actually has a decent three-point stroke. When you’re big men are capable of moving all over the court it can really open up lanes for your guards to cut and move. And that’s exactly what Gonzaga does. If they get cold shooting the ball they limit their game a bit more as the threat of the three reduces the need for the defense to send people out, but as long as they’re at least keeping them honest it’s a strategy that has proven tough to slow or match.

A lot of people will be quick to say UCLA will get flattened here, but don’t be so hasty to write them off. They’ve got some scorers and do a great job of moving the ball around, as all five of the guys who will most often see the court can hurt you. When it comes down to trying to run with the Zags offense though, I just don’t think they have the efficiency to stick around for 40 minutes.

Tyler’s Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs

So it hasn’t been the best year for me, but at least it’s been a fun one. Have any picks you’d like to call out before next weekend’s action starts, let’s hear them in the comments. Or as always let’s hear the fan support!

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