NFL Draft 2015: RB Prospects For The Falcons

With the Atlanta Falcons wrapping up their major free agency acquisitions, the team’s needs in the draft are becoming much clearer. With only two running backs on the roster in the young, promising Devonta Freeman and the “Human Cheat Code” Antone Smith (plus a fullback in Patrick DiMarco), the Falcons will certainly be looking to add a complementary piece in the 2015 NFL Draft.

The team has options, however. They could still bring back Jacquizz Rodgers in free agency, and they have an intriguing power back on the practice squad in Jerome Smith. All this means is that the Falcons can be extremely flexible with finding a RB in the draft. Which is good, because this RB class is chock full of talent from rounds 1-6 and the Falcons have a multitude of needs to fill.

Atlanta will be changing their rushing offense to a zone blocking scheme, which should benefit both Freeman and Smith. It will also influence the type of back they will take in the draft: the zone scheme benefits runners with good vision and decisiveness, who can hit the hole quickly without a lot of dancing in the backfield. While just about any back can find success in the ZBS, the Falcons need a big, physical, short-yardage RB to pair with the agile Freeman and the speedy Smith.

As usual, I was looking for players that a) performed well, either at the Combine or on tape (or both), b) fit the scheme the Falcons are going to run, and c) represent a good value at their projected draft position.

Here are the RBs that I believe are good fits for the Falcons in the 2015 NFL Draft. I don’t believe the Falcons will be spending a 1st round pick on a RB, which is why Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon aren’t included here (most projections have them going between picks 17-26, sorry Georgia fans).

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Jay Ajayi (Boise St.)

Projected Round: 2nd

Notable Stats: 6’0, 221. 4.57-forty. 39.0-in. vertical jump (5th best). 121.0-in. broad jump (5th best). 4.10-sec. 20-yard shuttle (3rd best). 11.10-sec. 60-yard shuttle (2nd best).

The Falcons could potentially start looking for their RB as early as the 2nd round. If so, they could go after Jay Ajayi, a guy that has been drawing comparisons to Marshawn Lynch. He’s the only player in FBS history to rack up 1,800 yards rushing with 500 yards receiving in a single season. Pretty darn impressive.

Ajayi is a true 3-down RB. He’s capable of breaking off the big run, blocking and catching out of the backfield, and grinding it out in short-yardage situations. Ajayi has the ideal frame for the position coupled with extraordinary foot coordination that stems from his years as a soccer player. He’s an agile, shifty runner that has several moves (and will use them in rapid succession) to escape tacklers. Ajayi has plus balance and is a physical runner that is able to generate yards after contact. He’s explosive through the hole and has a second gear to take big runs to the house. Ajayi is also a decent blocker with good hands who is capable of making plays in the passing game.

Ajayi also tends to “get too cute” with his moves, trying to shuffle down the line of scrimmage instead of committing to a gap. He will need to work on his discipline and patience to have success in a zone blocking scheme. Ajayi tends to run through defenders he should be able to run around, limiting what could have been a big gain to only a few yards. He could stand to improve his pass protection, as he will likely struggle with NFL-caliber rushers. Ajayi also has some issues with ball security, fumbling 11 times in 597 carries.

While I do doubt the Falcons spend such an early pick on a RB with Devonta Freeman likely to get the lions share of the snaps, they could fall in love with Ajayi. He’s a gifted back that can start his career as a complementary short-yardage player, while developing into a dependable 3rd-down back and perhaps potential starter. If he can become anything like Marshawn Lynch, the Falcons will have gotten a steal.

Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska)

Projected Round: 2nd

Notable Stats: 5’9, 205. 4.53-forty (Pro Day). 42.5-in. vertical jump (best). 130.0-in. broad jump (best). 6.79-sec. 3-cone (best). 3.95-sec. 20-yard shuttle (best). 11.18-sec. 60-yard shuttle (3rd best).

Another option in the 2nd round is the undersized but explosive Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah is without a doubt a 1st-round talent at the position, but concerns about his size will likely cause him to fall. This year, he ran for 1,690 yards and 9 TDs, reaching 100 yards in 11 of 13 games.

Abdullah is a perfect fit for a zone scheme offense: he’s disciplined and decisive at the point of attack, and runs with good form and power. He has great vision and impressive burst, finding holes and cutback opportunities that other backs miss. Abdullah is also an asset in the passing game, with solid hands (no drops in 2 years as a starter) and an ability to make plays in space. He plays faster than his 40 time, with very little wasted motion. Abdullah is a tough, physical runner that can grind it out in short-yardage situations on par with bigger backs. He’s also a solid punt/kick returner and can help out there from day one. A team MVP, captain, and Academic All-American, Abdullah’s character both on and off the field is outstanding.

The primary concern about Abdullah is his size, and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to put on any more bulk. He can struggle with bigger rushers in pass protection and needs to work on his technique in that area. There are potential issues with ball security, as Abdullah has fumbled 13 times in four years. He also tends to run through his routes at half speed if he doesn’t anticipate getting the ball.

Abdullah is a great RB that just happens to be a little on the small side for a three-down back. Luckily, the Falcons don’t need him for that. As a physical, short-yardage complement to Freeman and Smith, Abdullah would be a perfect fit for the Falcons in their zone scheme. He can also contribute right away on kick and punt returns, serving as insurance for Devin Hester. As with Ajayi, I doubt the Falcons pick a RB this early, but the talent of Abdullah is certainly tempting.

Tevin Coleman (Indiana)

Projected Round: 2nd-3rd

Notable Stats: 5’11, 206. 4.59-forty (unofficial). DNP in Combine workouts due to injury.

There are a lot of 1st-2nd round RBs in the draft this year, which makes the chances of one falling quite high. While that RB probably won’t be Tevin Coleman, who I have as my #3 RB behind Gurley and Gordon, there’s a chance the Falcons can snag him in the 2nd or 3rd. And there is good reason for that: Coleman is an absolute monster, rushing for 2,063 yards (7.5 YPC) and 15 TDs in 2014. I had the Falcons taking Coleman in my third Mock Draft, and here’s what I had to say:

Coleman is a physical runner with excellent strength that possesses the ability to fight through contact and fall forward on every play. Coupled with his physicality is his big play potential: Coleman has impressive acceleration and burst that led to him leading the nation with eight 60-yard runs in 2014 and an insane 40.3-yard average touchdown distance. He’s agile and well-balanced, with good vision and instincts. Coleman is also a reliable receiver out of the backfield that already possesses solid pass blocking skills. He’s durable and has great stamina, as he averaged a whopping 8.4 yds/carry in the second half of games in 2014.

However, Coleman’s tall stature makes him a bigger target for tacklers, and he could stand to improve his pad-level. His frame is essentially maxed out, and although he has good speed he probably won’t be the fastest player on the field in the NFL. Coleman is primarily a one-cut runner, which is perfect for the Falcons zone scheme but might hinder him in the open field. His primary concern is his ball security: Coleman fumbled four times in 2014 (three of which were lost). Still, those issues can be coached up, and Coleman showed game-breaking ability despite being the primary threat on his team.

Coleman may be the most complete 3-down RB in the draft outside of Gurley and Gordon. He’s exactly what the Falcons need in a platoon with Freeman and Smith: a north-south chain mover who can fight for tough yards, and occasionally break off a big play. While it’s unlikely he falls to the 3rd, the Falcons won’t find a better RB with that pick.

David Johnson (Northern Iowa)

Projected Round: 3rd

Notable Stats: 6’1, 224. 4.50-forty (4th best). 41.5-in. vertical jump (2nd best). 127.0-in. broad jump (2nd best). 6.82-sec. 3-cone (2nd best). 25 bench press reps (T-4th best).

The most athletic RB at the Combine aside from Ameer Abdullah, David Johnson is an intriguing prospect that runs with excellent power and has perhaps the best receiving traits for a RB in the draft. Johnson stands out when running downfield in that he carries himself like a receiver and looks like one catching the ball. The Falcons will likely be picking their RB in either the 3rd or 4th rounds, and Johnson has a good shot at being that RB. I had the Falcons taking Johnson in the 4th round in my latest mock draft, and here’s what I had to say about him:

David Johnson (6’1, 224) is that big guy. He’s a tough, physical runner that fights through contact and, in the film I watched, was never brought down by only 1 defender. Johnson has good speed (4.50) and was among the most athletic RBs in the Combine this year in just about every drill. But perhaps the most intriguing part of Johnson’s game is his receiving ability. He spent time at WR and when you see him running down the field he legitimately looks like one. Johnson has excellent hands and is a matchup nightmare for LBs. He’s a jump-cut RB with the ability to thrive in a zone blocking scheme. His long speed is excellent, and if he can get out into space he’s difficult to catch and bring down. He also offers something in the return game.

Johnson’s speed, however, is better showcased in space. He’s not particularly quick to burst through the hole and can be caught trying to make cuts too early or too late. His vision is merely average, and Johnson will often look to cut back on his runs instead of following the play. Johnson’s frame presents a big target for defenders, and he can be slowed enough by players getting their hands on him that he is eventually brought down. His pass blocking could use some work and despite his weight room strength, he seems to let players take him down too easily.

A lot of scouts have compared Johnson to Charles Sims. I would say Johnson is a bigger, more physical version of Sims that can offer more in the ground game. Johnson would provide the Falcons with a complementary piece to Freeman and Smith that can contribute in short-yardage situations and as a pass catcher. He could go as early as the 3rd, but Johnson would be an excellent value pick for the Falcons if he falls to the 4th.

David Cobb (Minnesota)

Projected Round: 3rd-4th

Notable Stats: 5’11, 229. 4.59-forty (unofficial).

The Falcons need a tough, physical, short-yardage runner, and that is exactly what they’ll get in Minnesota’s David Cobb. He’s not going to wow you with crazy highlight-reel runs, but he will get the tough yards that few backs can. Cobb’s stock has fallen slightly with his injury at the Combine (in which he registered a 4.81-forty, but don’t pay any attention to that), and there’s a chance he could be had in the late 3rd-early 4th. In 2014, he rushed for 1,626 yards and 13 TDs at 5.2 YPC.

Cobb is a physical, bruising RB that will plow through opposing defenses. I watched him take on two stout defenses in Missouri and Nebraska and came away impressed with his toughness and tenacity. His small frame gives him great balance and a lesser target for defenders. While Cobb isn’t particularly agile, he gets away from would-be tacklers with good hand usage and small movements. He gained a staggering 54% of his yardage after contact. Cobb also appears to be both patient and decisive, with solid vision that could make him a good fit in the Falcons’ new zone scheme. He runs with good pad-level and almost no wasted movement, keeping his legs churning to gain extra yards on every carry.

However, Cobb is not a particularly flashy runner and he lacks agility and playmaking ability in space. He’s mainly a between-the-tackles runner that doesn’t quite have the speed to break runs outside against NFL defenses. Cobb doesn’t explode through the hole and needs room to reach his top speed. I saw him make a few outstanding catches on tape, but he definitely needs to spend more time refining his receiving ability. Cobb’s pass blocking is very hit or miss, but the traits and strength are there to be coached up. He fumbled in 4/6 games midway through the 2014 season, and will need to improve his ball security at the NFL level.

Perhaps the most physical of any RBs in the 2015 Draft, Cobb has the potential to be a dominant short-yardage back in the NFL. He’s never going to wow you with jukes or moves, but he will consistently find ways to get extra yards when needed. With a little coaching on his blocking and receiving, Cobb would be an excellent short-yardage complement to the Falcons’ RB platoon. Cobb would be a particularly good value if he falls to the 4th.

Javorius Allen (Southern California)

Projected Round: 4th

Notable Stats: 6’0, 221. 4.53-forty.

It’s no secret that I love Javorius “Buck” Allen: I’ve raved about him in pretty much every forum and mock that I’ve done this offseason. Allen is a physical back that has found success in a pro-style offense. He’s versatile, with good blocking chops and great skills as a receiver out of the backfield. Best of all, he’s likely to be there when the Falcons pick in the 4th round. He racked up 1,489 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) with 11 TDs in 2014, along with 41 catches for 458 yards (11.2 YPC) and 1 TD through the air.

Allen has the size you look for in a bruising back, and has surprising agility to boot. He runs with a “slashing” style that allows him to move between gaps and defenders with ease. Allen has great balance and burst, with quick cuts and explosion at the second level. He is impressive in space, able to avoid downfield tacklers and create big plays. Allen has the strength to take runs between the tackles, and the lateral quickness to bounce outside. He’s a weapon in the passing game, and is a difficult match-up for opposing LBs. His blocking is also good, though like most young backs, he can probably improve in his technique. Allen’s experience in USC’s pro-style offense should help him adjust more quickly to the NFL game.

The primary knock on Allen is his running style: he’s an upright runner that plays with a high pad level. He doesn’t show the burst through initial contact that you would expect for a runner of his size. Allen needs to better develop his instincts and his vision is merely average at this point. He can be somewhat undisciplined, breaking off the called play before it has time to fully develop. Allen needs to run with a more fiery play-demeanor, and could stand to finish his runs with a bit more pop. While he’s quick in space, he doesn’t have the long speed to outrun NFL defenders.

Allen, to me, is a back with great physical tools that needs NFL coaching to reach his ceiling. He’s already a solid blocker and great receiver out of the backfield, and with some seasoning he could become an excellent short-yardage back that is a threat to take it to the endzone on every play. Allen could even develop into a 3-down, workhorse-type RB, but the Falcons don’t need him to be that any time soon. If he’s available in the 4th round, the Falcons should give him a long, hard look.

Cameron Artis-Payne (Auburn)

Projected Round: 4th

Notable Stats: 5’10, 212. 4.53-forty.

Another physical, short-yardage back (noticing a pattern here?), Cameron Artis-Payne is a stocky RB that is simply solid across the board. He’s not going to wow you with outrageous highlight reel runs, but he can be counted on to get tough yards in clutch situations. Artis-Payne was a JUCO transfer that moved right into the starting role at Auburn, and he certainly looked the part. He’s a good fit for a platoon-system like the Falcons plan to run. He rushed for 1,608 yards (5.3 YPC) with 13 TDs in 2014.

Artis-Payne is a physical, north-south runner who will look to get the most out of every carry. He’s patient and well-disciplined, willing to wait for the play to develop before attacking. Artis-Payne has excellent short area speed, blasting through gaps and creases with ease. His signature is a spin move that he has used to great effect, escaping tackles in the second level. He is fearless between the tackles and will fight for yards, finishing his runs with power. Artis-Payne has good vision into the secondary, finding room to run even when the play is breaking down. He’s dependable in ball security and won’t waste time dancing along the line of scrimmage.

There are concerns about Artis-Payne’s quickness, as he may not be able to threaten the edge consistently at the NFL level. His blocking is questionable and he will need to improve in that area. While his patience is often a good thing, he can sometimes wait too long and get caught in the backfield by blitzing LBs. He’s a physical runner, but he doesn’t move the pile as much as someone of his stature should. Artis-Payne is also not particularly impressive in space, with tight hips and unimpressive lateral agility.

Artis-Payne is not a flashy RB. Instead, he’s a short-yardage grinder with decent hands that can be depended on to get tough yards. If you think about it, that’s really what the Falcons need to complement Freeman and Smith. The zone scheme has made a living making backs like Artis-Payne, who aren’t thought of as particularly explosive, into 1000-yard rushers. He’s a physical runner that would be a good value pick for the Falcons in the 4th round.

Karlos Williams (Florida St.)

Projected Round: 5th

Notable Stats: 6’1, 230. 4.48-forty (2nd best).

One of the biggest, most athletic RBs in the 2015 draft class, Karlos Williams is a physical runner with experience in a zone scheme. He is a safety convert that has only two years at the RB position. Coming off his 2013 season, Williams was one of the top prospects at the position (averaging a staggering 8.0 YPC). But his play took a hit in 2014 for reasons unknown, and his per-carry production dropped off significantly (4.6 YPC). Now, Williams is slated to go around the 5th, which could be a steal for the gifted athlete.

Williams is a tough runner with an aggressive, physical running style. Despite his size, he has excellent burst and is an expert at breaking off big runs in the outside zone. Primarily a one-cut runner, Williams is a natural fit for a zone scheme team and has experience playing in that system. He was the second fastest RB at the Combine and that speed is evident in his game film. His hands are solid and he’s a good receiver out of the backfield. Williams’ large frame allows him to take on bigger rushers in the blocking game, and his technique is surprisingly adequate for such an inexperienced back. He’s a pile-mover, and is unafraid of running between the tackles if needed. Williams is a patient runner that will fight for extra yards, keeping those legs churning after contact.

Most of the issues in Williams’ game arise from his inexperience at the position. He runs too upright for someone his size, causing him to lose the leverage battle if he’s hit before gathering enough steam. Williams’ still plays with a high pad level, and will need to improve in that area to be a successful RB in the NFL. His instincts are still developing, and he can sometimes make poor decisions leading to loss of yards or no gain. While he has quickness, he’s not particularly agile and won’t make a lot of players miss in space. His play dipped noticeably in 2014 and he lost his starting job to a freshman RB, along with being investigated for domestic battery (charges were never filed, however).

Williams could be the best value in the entire draft at RB if he makes it to the 5th round. He’s a physical back with surprising speed that is just scratching the surface of his potential. With good coaching and patience, he is a perfect fit as a complementary back in a zone scheme offense. The Falcons could use him right away in short-yardage situations, and he could potentially develop into a dangerous pass-catcher and blocker on 3rd downs. Even if he doesn’t pan out, the Falcons are only risking a 5th round pick on him.

Matt Jones (Florida)

Projected Round: 5th-6th

Notable Stats: 6’2, 231. 4.61-forty.

A big, bowling ball-style runner, Matt Jones is an aggressive ground-pounder with exceptional size. He’s a consistent and skilled short-yardage back with surprising athleticism that is adept at moving the chains. The Falcons have a lot of needs to fill, and they could opt to address the RB position in later rounds (Shanahan found Alfred Morris in the 6th). In 2014, Jones ran for 817 yards (4.9 YPC) with 6 TDs.

The thing that stands out the most about Jones is his size: he’s an impressive figure at 6’2, 231, and he’s a handful to bring down with a head of steam. Jones has the traits of a grinding back and will work for extra yardage after contact. He runs forward with a good lean into contact, and keeps his shoulders square to the line to generate as much power as possible. Jones rarely is stopped for a loss, and has surprising lateral quickness to bounce runs outside if needed. He didn’t catch many passes at Florida (11 receptions for 65 yards, 1 TD), but he’s looked capable when called upon. His blocking is excellent: he uses his big body to square up rushers and can take on bigger players with solid technique.

Jones is more of a short-yardage back than anything, however. He lacks dynamic traits and doesn’t have breakaway speed, limiting the damage he can do on big plays. His vision needs a lot of work, and his instincts are disappointing. Often, he’ll simply run into his blockers without letting the play properly develop. Jones has a some agility, but he doesn’t shake a lot of tackles in space. His patience and decision-making will need to be coached up to have success in a zone scheme. While he didn’t have many fumbles at Florida, he could stand to improve his ball security (he seems to run without tucking the ball at times).

Jones is not a flashy RB, but he is a guy that can get you tough yards when needed. He has potential as a blocker and pass catcher, but will mainly be relied upon as a short-yardage bruiser in the NFL. Which is exactly what the Falcons need to pair with Freeman and Smith. Jones probably won’t blow anyone away in the NFL, but he’s a role player who can grind it out when called upon. If the Falcons decide to address other needs earlier in the draft, they could get great value out of Jones in the 6th round.

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This RB class is surprisingly deep, with multiple options available in every round. While I doubt the Falcons expend higher than a 3rd round pick on a RB at this point, they could be in play for many of the guys on this list. There is also the potential that the Falcons bring in someone in free agency, like Knowshon Moreno or Stevan Ridley, making the position less of a need. One thing is certain: the Falcons will bring in somebody to be a short-yardage complement to Freeman and Smith.

Keep an eye out in the next week for my first defensive position Draft Breakdown (finally!). I’ll be starting with defensive ends (if they participated in the Combine under the DL category, they go in the DE breakdown. If they participated with the LBs, they’ll be in the OLB breakdown) and follow that up with defensive tackles. Obviously, DE is a huge need for Atlanta this offseason, and I’ll be breaking down the top prospects at the position.

You can follow me on Twitter for the latest Falcons news updates @TRSKevinKnight. I’m always happy to answer questions about prospects, free agents, or football in general. As always, Rise Up and go Falcons!

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Previous Draft Breakdowns

Offensive Line

Tight End

Wide Receiver

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