Gone is the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, enter the sweet and elite. The frills of the opening weekend are gone, and replacing it comes the really tough pair of rounds in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. There are no gimmicks at this point, and after an impressive Sweet 16 round, truly only the best remain. These remaining eight schools are the most elite….ok that’s a little too puny to even finish. You get the point though.

The opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament comes with some fun. We see some small schools put themselves on the spotlight for a weekend, and names only NBA scouts might have ever read over skyrocket to stardom. In the following weekend of games the feel is a little bit more different. You’ve survived the venue change, and you’re just one stop and two games away from punching your ticket to Indianapolis and the Final Four. There is no more room for mediocre. Your good will no longer get you to the next round. Only the best prevail.

That being said it is still March Madness, and craziness is to be expected, even in this stacked field that remains. The Sweet 16 played out kind of like many people would expect. Only one lower seed won. Although the Elite 8 looks to possibly provide us some dethroning opportunities.

I’ve been down on myself by I really can’t be too disappointed with my picks so far this season. Sure it’s been a little light on the wow factor, although I’ll be clinging onto my NC State pick until at least next year. Overall I’ve fared better than plenty at this point. I originally predicted 6 of the 8 teams in the Elite 8 from my initial predictions and went a perfect 8-0 in the Sweet 16 in my round by round, albeit just one lower seed won. But it’s time to look into the next round.

2015 NCAA Tournament Record: 43-17

2015 Sweet 16 Record: 8-0

 

Midwest

1 Kentucky Wildcats vs 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Kentucky Wildcats -after a game that should have been a much larger blow out in their opener, and being seriously tested for 3/4 of the game by Cincinnati- finally gave the NCAA Tournament its first ‘good’ outing. They blew out the West Virginia Mountaineers by an astounding score of 78-39. West Virginia’s 39 points was the lowest Sweet 16 score recorded in the shot clock era, surpassing the previous low of 43 set by Miami-Ohio against none other than the Kentucky Wildcats in 1999. Their size, and overall ability proved too much for the Mountaineers to even entertain a solid effort to compete against.

Notre Dame meanwhile played a more tightly contested game with the Wichita State Shockers. The Irish ramped up their scoring and challenged the Shockers to hang with them. The increased scoring pace proved too much to handle. The Shockers who had been red-hot from behind the arc throughout the tournament took a polar plunge at the worst time possible. They shot just 3-for-18 from outside, unable to keep up with the Irish’s 9-for-19 from deep.

There seem to be only a few molds that can even play up to Kentucky’s standards for a fraction of the game, and while there are remaining teams who should have a better chance should they get the opportunity, the Irish should be able to give the Cats a quality test. Not reliant on any one facet of scoring, the Irish are capable of spreading the floor and hurting you from anywhere, mitigating the big benefit of the interior defense Kentucky posses.

The scary fact remains that while Kentucky played a good game here against West Virginia, we still haven’t seen that ‘great’ output. Their shooters were cold, and if wasn’t for their sheer size and dominance of the paint on both ends of the court this game could have easily been slightly more interesting.

Notre Dame is piecing together their stellar offense that seemed to stumble out of the gate though. They put points up against Wichita State, and did a great job at moving the ball around, registering 18 assists in the game. They’ll need to continue to do that. Kentucky has multiple shot blockers, so when you enter the lane you must have a plan. They don’t collapse as much as other teams do thank to their stout interior defenders, but you can get them off their feet. Notre Dame has to take advantage of that. It is not an unheard of thing to see two Wildcats go up for the same block. Your guys cannot be still. Capitalize on backdoor cuts and get their feet moving. Kentucky’s big men are athletic and their recovery time is lightning fast, so you have to move with the precision of a surgeon and the speed of a sprinter to take advantage. And most importantly as we saw with Cincinnati, you have to play physical. Kentucky is MonStars size huge, but you can’t be intimidated by it. Their guys are big, but by no means bulky. Boxing them out is an option, and we saw Cincy out rebound them and look at how much they stuck around.

Notre Dame will likely give the Cats their best test of the tourney so far, but the fact of the matter is it is still their game to lose at this point. Stay even warming window hot from deep and let your big men go to town down low, and you have the formula to withstand anything Notre Dame can throw at you.

Tyler’s Pick: Kentucky Wildcats

East

4 Louisville Cardinals vs 7 Michigan State Spartans

I for one am really excited about this game. A lot of people doubted the Cardinals coming into this tournament, but they’re a team that picks up more momentum with each round. And the Spartans were also a little under appreciated yet find themselves in yet another Elite 8.

These are two storied basketball programs with a pair of legendary coaches in Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo. And while these may not be their best squads we’ve seen late in tournaments, they’re without a doubt a group of guys who go out there and leave it all on the court.

Louisville saw great guard play as they overcame early struggles against NC State. Terry Rozier did a little bit of it all, contributing 17 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 assists. And of course the big guy Montrezl Harrell left his stamp on the game putting up a team-high 24 points.

Michigan State took their first lead against Oklahoma with just under 10 minutes to go in the second half. They fought their way through a growing deficit and imperfections on the court, but eventually pushed on to see a 62-58 victory. Travis Trice again had a big night from deep, shooting 4-of-9. They played with much more energy in the second half and it shows in the box score.

These teams have very similar molds. Neither has a ton of height, sending out two multi purpose forwards and three guards. But their big men are physical beings. Watching Brendan Dawson and Harrell get ugly in the trenches will be quite entertaining.

The one big advantage the Spartans hold over the Cards here is three-point shooting. The Cardinals lack any consistency from behind the arc, and if Izzo wants to create some separation his guys have to get at least lukewarm from deep. However, they were atrocious from the free throw line against Oklahoma. That needs to get fixed, or Pitino could quickly turn this game into a hack-a-Shaq event.

Rozier took a bit of a scary fall after being pushed into the base of the stanchion against NC State. He nearly folded in half, but got up and played the rest of game (majority at least) while remaining a little gingerly on his feet. That will definitely be something to keep an eye on heading into Sunday as he’s proven time and time again he can be the x-factor for Louisville.

In my initial predictions I had Virginia beating Louisville and advancing to the Final Four. While I’m always scared to pick against Pitino, I have to take a stretch here and say Sparty ekes out a narrow win again.

Tyler’s Pick: Michigan State Spartans

 

 

West

1 Wisconsin Badgers vs 2 Arizona Wildcats

In the Staples Center we saw two really good games where the top seeds where tested for a lengthy time. The Badgers were pushed well into the second half by a maimed UNC team led by none other than Marcus Paige who just hit clutch shot after clutch shot. The Badgers ultimately prevailed.

Meanwhile Arizona was pushed well into the 2nd half as well by an Xavier team that has played this entire tournament with a chip on their shoulder. Xavier outplayed the Wildcats for the majority of the game, but down the stretch failed to hold it together. Arizona went on a 19-to-7 run over the final 7 minutes of the game to close things out.

Arizona continues to display struggles with a zone coverage, as Xavier threw a little bit of a 1-3-1 zone at them at times and it was definitely successful in spurts. Despite the fire power that Arizona possess, they just can’t seem to put in a great effort when faced with a zone. Ohio State gave them a mighty scare with it, and if you needed anymore reason to play into a zone every once in a while against this team, Xavier has provided even more reasons.

It’s hard not to like the Badgers at this point, a group of level-headed guys who have fun on the court, but also go out there and leave a well polished product on the court every night. The big three of Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, and Nigel Hayes are winning folks over from the box score to the press conferences.

Neither team is perfect and nobody would have expected either to be. They have some major flaws that if appropriately capitalized on, could quickly find themselves packing their bags for home without a ticket punched to Indianapolis for next weekend.

This is actually a rematch of last year’s West Regional Elite 8 matchup. The two squads duked it out to a one point thriller, and relatively similar results should be expected here. These squads have shown their tenacity. They know what needs to be done when things aren’t looking up for them.

The Cats had a quality showing from their big names against Xavier, and they’ll need it again. TJ McConnell won’t be able to weather the storm alone similar to how he did against the Buckeyes.

Traevon Jackson had missed the previous 19 games for Wisconsin but found some court time against UNC. He brings a much-needed fresh take to Wisconsin’s guard play which can at times get placed on the back burner thanks to the Badgers’ stellar bigs. He won’t be stealing the starting minutes, but if he can continue to be a helpful fixture off the bench his services will likely continue to be called upon.

You gotta love a couple of top seeds that come into the Elite 8 after being tested. The great teams are able to brush those games off. It’s been two in a row for Arizona though, and you can’t help but wonder if they find themselves down or being tested late, can they find the late overdrive for a third straight game?

I’ve picked the Badgers as my 2015 NCAA Tournament Champions, and I cannot abandon them now.

Tyler’s Pick: Wisconsin Badgers

 

South

1 Duke Blue Devils vs 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs

A big hat tip to Utah who had both an impressive season but also played Duke right down to the wire. If they could have mitigated their turnovers, and started off a little better, they just might have been able to sneak away with one. Neither team started well, in fact it was one of the sloppiest starts I’ve ever seen two quality programs have. There were turnovers, terrible shots, and more turnovers. But then Duke got rolling, with the Utes quickly in pursuit. Utah found themselves down as many as 25 before clawing their way back into the game. But it was Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook who took over for the Blue Devils and managed to hold on.

Gonzaga didn’t quite blow UCLA out of the water, but comfortably manager to walk away with a win. Przemek Karnowski controlled the game with 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks.

NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas has proven to be quite the shooters nightmare. Both games played in the Sweet 16 there there were noticeable shooting difficulties on both sides of the ball. During the Duke/Utah game analyst Grant Hill went out on the court and described the lights as being ‘very bright’. Of course NRG Stadium plays home to the Houston Texans on a regular basis, and had to be specially retrofitted to accommodate the basketball court. It’ll be something to keep in mind going into this Elite 8 matchup, and while it’s a disadvantage, it is at least one that is seemingly equally affecting all teams.

This game pits two high-powered offenses that like to get up and go. Expect the pace to reach unmanageable speeds at certain times, as both sides will be looking to push the tempo.

As much as you must have liked the offensive efficiency from Gonzaga so far in this tournament, you can’t help but wonder if it’s a pace that is maintainable. Against a top program like Duke nonetheless. We saw some serious regression from their first two games in comparison to their matchup with UCLA. Kyle Wiltjer struggled, putting up just 8 points on 4-of-12 shooting, and an 0-for-3 day from deep. Another pedestrian day from him on Sunday and Gonzaga will be waving farewell, missing their chance to go to the school’s first Elite 8.

Duke again has some reevaluation to do. They got dominated on the glass against Utah, giving up 18 offensive rebounds. And those second chance opportunities provided plenty of points for Utah. Gonzaga is again not a small team with size coming from Wiltjer and Karnowski, so the Blue Devils have to get physical on the boards.

Duke doesn’t need to hurt you from deep either. They were held to just three three-pointers against Utah, all coming from Justise Winslow, but the fact of the matter is the threat is there. If you do a poor job rotating when you’re committing a double team to Okafor, you can bet they’ll feed it out to the open man. And even hitting a couple of those wide open shots can be enough to kill a team.

Utah did a fantastic job cutting off passing lanes and frustrating Duke by getting their hands in the way of anything within reach. They read Okafor well when they trapped him in the corner and forced some silly turnovers. Gonzaga has the ability to match that, and while their defensive prowess isn’t quite that of Utah, they could definitely play it well enough to disrupt things.

All in all I think Gonzaga has made quite the run. I still see some major flaws on their roster, and I think the road ends here.

Tyler’s Pick: Duke Blue Devils

On to the Elite 8! Let me hear your thoughts on the weekend’s games in the comments, it’s been eerily quiet out there!

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