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The Grizzlies’ Gauntlet

The Grizzlies had the honor of playing 3 of the top 5 title favorites in their last 3 games, and the results have not been great (0-3). While it is easy to write these off as regular season games that are not relevant to their title chances, that may not be the most realistic view. This is concerning in multiple ways. The most important is their position in the Western Conference.

Nobody is catching Golden State. I hope I didn’t drop too much hoops knowledge on you there, but they have a lead that is all but insurmountable in the West. The ceiling of the Grizzlies is the 2 seed, which would be fantastic, but they are no longer in this spot, for what seems like the first time in a long time. While the 2 seed to the 3 seed may not seem incredibly significant, it absolutely is.

The 7 spot is currently occupied by the shaky Dallas Mavericks, who have the 3rd worst point differential (-2.9) out of all playoff teams since the All-Star break. That statistic includes eastern conference teams. Possible 6 seeds that the Grizzlies could play in the first round if they drop to the 3 seed include the Spurs and the Clippers, who own the 3rd and 4th best post All-Star point differentials, respectively. This statistic simplifies a trend that has been the poor play of Dallas, and the exemplary play of the Spurs and Clippers. While the 2 seed and 3 seed may be determined by a few games, the difference of first round match-ups is undeniable.

The greater trouble may not be in getting the 3 seed, but falling even further than that. The fall from the 2 seed to the 6 seed is only 3.5 games, and the Grizzlies have been executing so poorly that this would not surprise me. While, the difference in their first round opponent would not be incredibly different if they dipped to the 4 seed, they would be subjected to playing Golden State in the second round (if they won). Needless to say, the 2 seed is incredibly important to them.

The other troubling aspect of the Grizzlies’ slip in play is that they have a negative point differential since the All-Star break, just like Dallas (-1.3). Only Dallas has a worse differential after the break. Playing Dallas could allow this weak incarnation of the Grizzlies to limp into the second round, but it would not solve any long-term problems with their play. A major problem with their team has been the play of Courtney Lee, as well as many different aspects of other player’s games.

Lee was once the 2nd most efficient 3 point shooter in the NBA, behind Kyle Korver, and there is no shame is shooting 3s worse than Korver. Since the break, his 3 point shooting is down 14%, and he has increased his attempts per game. Not a great combo for a Grizzlies team that relies on a few makes per game from limited attempts. He and Carter absolutely need to solve their shooting issues if this team wants to be a title threat.

March has been the Grizzlies worst rebounding month by any number of statistics, and Gasol and Randolph have not picked up the slack. The greater drop has been Randolph, as his rebounding has dropped by a count of 4.6 per game. Most of those have come from his offensive rebounding totals, leaving the Grizzlies as a very weak team on the offensive boards.

This trend is representative of many elements of the Grizzlies play, and these issues have been exposed throughout this gauntlet that they have had to fight through. At the end of the day, the Grizzlies can make any series ugly and winnable. Most of the past few Grizzlies teams have been able to do this, but this year’s team was special because of their offensive play. If they can work the ball through their best passers (Gasol and Conley) and focus on match-up advantages more, they will be back in early season form.

Author: John Powers

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