Green Bay Packers: Curds Of Wisdom

The NFL season will be here before we know it, and the Green Bay Packers are gearing up for what may be another Super Bowl year. To get you ready for the upcoming Packers season, Packers writers Michael Fiez and Hilmi Celtikcioglu will be answering 5 questions every week about predictions and expectations for the Green Bay Packers. Here is your first installment of Curds of Wisdom.

Question One: OddsShark now has the Packers listed as Super Bowl favorites. Do you agree? Do the Packers win the Super Bowl, and if so how do they do it?

Michael: There are worse bets than picking Green Bay to win the Super Bowl. They were a mere implosion away from The Big Game last season, and they return their potent offense. Defensively, the questions are bountiful and severe—as it seems they are every offseason—and defense should ultimately decide how far this team goes. If Green Bay is going to make it to the Promised Land, it will be on key turnovers. The offense is a constant for the Packers, and it is a given that their defense will give up yards. However, when the team has been at its best, it has been due to the offensive stability and firepower and key turnovers—despite a penchant for surrendering yards. Should they force those turnovers again—much of this task will fall to the team’s young playmakers—they have a chance. If they cannot provide those key moments and continue to give up yards, don’t count on Green Bay in the final game.

Hilmi: I do believe the Packers have the strongest and most complete roster in the league and as such, Green Bay is my preseason favorite to win the Lombardi Trophy. With the team as it is now, they do not need the planets to align to win it all. I have two simple conditions:

a. Injuries: Injuries do happen, and will happen. Any team can lose a season due to a couple of injuries at certain positions. The most obvious is Aaron Rodgers; lose him and you can write off the season. Skill positions are safer, but James Starks is a clear drop-off from Eddie Lacy. After an injury-free season, the offensive line has gelled into one giant five-headed lineman. An injury or two in the offensive line would hurt, but is survivable. On defense, all cornerbacks but the two starters are unknowns; lose Shields or Hayward, and you can pray to Deion Sanders, patron saint of the secondary that Russell Wilson or Drew Brees does not torch you in the playoffs.

b. Rookie Contribution: Offense is all set, but rookies have to contribute at cornerback and linebacker. With Tramon Williams and Davon House gone, one of the rookie cornerbacks (Rollins and Randall) have to step up as number three. At linebacker Sam Barrington and Clay Matthews man the inside, but if Jake Ryan can crack the starting lineup at some point, Clay Matthews can move back outside where he belongs.

Question Two: Which Packers rookie is going to have the biggest impact in 2015? Will any rookies surprise us? Will any disappoint us?

Michael: This year is going to hinge on the top two picks from this year’s draft. Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins. Sam Shields is fresh off a disappointing season, while Casey Hayward looks to play outside for the first time after an injury-shortened campaign. Having lost two experienced cover men, Tramon Williams and Davon House, the two young playmakers will be pressed into early action. If Randall and Rollins can use their evident talents to make up for their lack of position experience (or football experience in the latter’s case), they can propel this defense and this team. There will not be a lot of opportunity for most of these rookies to surprise, as the Packers boast experience at most positions. If there is one to watch for though, keep your eyes on undrafted running back John Crockett. He has the best chance to play behind the bruising Eddie Lacy and the questionable health of James Starks. He is not entirely guaranteed to make the roster, fighting with Rajon Neal for the final spot in the backfield. Should he win that battle, he could make an impact, especially in the case of injury to one of the team’s top two backs. If anyone is going to disappoint it will likely be Ty Montgomery. Though two previously mentioned corners could be pegged here, corner is a notoriously tough transition that should lower expectations to begin with. As a third round pick at a skill position, Montgomery comes into the season with inherent expectations. He was inconsistent in college as a receiver, and could face a tough competition for the number four receiver on the depth chart. He will see time as a returner, where his skill set should help him excel, but fans will come to expect more out of their highly drafted receiver on offense.

Hilmi: After watching tapes of all drafted rookies, my pick is Ty Montgomery, the WR out of Stanford. While he won’t get many snaps since the top three at his position (Nelson, Cobb and Adams) are entrenched, I expect Montgomery to shine as a kick returner. With head coach Mike McCarthy promising to improve special teams, look for the rookie to relieve Randall Cobb from return duties and provide the spark that the lackluster special teams desperately need.

I hesitate to label rookies “disappointments” or “busts” before they have 2-3 years of reprogramming at the pro level. If I absolutely had to pick one, I’d say Christian Ringo has nowhere near the size or athleticism to play DE in a 3-4 defense. Unless he pulls a Mike Daniels, I expect Ringo to be gone sooner rather than later.

Question Three: What are the biggest concerns about the Packers’ defense?

Michael: There are many concerns on this side of the ball. Interior linebacker depth is an immediate question, with Sam Barrington as the only designated inside linebacker with experience. Clay Matthews will again be forced to play out of position in the middle, but one of the young, untested, players is going to have to step up. Carl Bradford seems to be inline for the first chance, but I would place my bet on Jake Ryan surpassing him before too long. The secondary pass-rush option may also be of concern. Peppers continues to age, and though he is seemingly defying his age, it will catch up to him. Nick Perry heads a slew of inconsistent but gifted rushers, one of whom is going to have to step up as Matthews spends more time inside. Green Bay’s secondary is always a question, as it has been for years. The talent of the group is undeniable, but the production and experience leave much to be desired. If they can play to their potential, it could lift Green Bay beyond the limits that have stalled them in recent campaigns. Another question that has persisted for years is the run defense. The mediocre pairing of Letroy Guion and BJ Raji in the middle return to at least provide size, but the entire front seven must step up if they don’t want to be the iron ball dragging this team down.

Hilmi: Cornerbacks are clearly the point of concern for the Packers’ defense. Sam Shields returns, but Tramon Williams is gone. Casey Hayward returns, but Davon House is gone. After these two, Dom Capers only has rookies and unproven youth at the position. Sure, Micah Hyde can play nickel if needed, but NFC North opponents have no shortage of quality receivers to test the depth at secondary. Green Bay’s 2015 schedule also features the likes of Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Carson Palmer. Not a good year to see if your cornerbacks group is worthy of a Super Bowl appearance.

Another concern is middle linebacker. AJ Hawk is gone, and so is Brad Jones. Clay Matthews has shown that he’s fine to start inside, but for me that’s a waste of a great edge rusher. If Nick Perry or Mike Neal don’t step up on the outside, the flank opposite Julius Peppers can get exposed.

Question Four: How will Mike McCarthy not handling the offense affect the Packers?

Michael: Despite Tom Clements assuming the mantle of play caller, there will not be much of a change. The offense will continue to spread out their opponents, using Lacy to pound them into submission and Rodgers to operate with clinical precision. What may change is an emphasis on individual matchups and a larger emphasis on special teams. With McCarthy able to watch with a more scrutinizing eye, he can more easily discern specific weaknesses in his opponent and keenly take advantage of them with individual matchups. He will also be able to devote more energy to evaluating special teams players and ensuring nothing like last season’s implosion happens again.

Hilmi: Mike McCarthy, Tom Clements and Aaron Rodgers have been together for nine years. At this point, Tom Clements calling the plays is pretty much the same as Mike McCarthy doing it himself. Of course the fans will scream for McCarthy to go back to calling the plays the first time the team has to punt. I think it’s a great idea that the head coach wants to devote more time to aspects of the team other than offense. He promised to pay more attention to special teams and defense, and he expects to sit in a lot more position group meetings. This CEO approach is the only way to go since coaching up the offense further is not going to yield more results.

Question Five: Knock on wood, let’s say Aaron Rogers goes down. Do the Packers still have a chance to make the playoffs?

Michael: The NFL is a quarterback driven league. And Rodgers may be its best driver. He is the vital cog in a Super Bowl contender. Should he go down, say goodbye to those championship hopes. However, the playoffs may not be entirely out of the picture. Obviously, the mediocre-at-best defense would make that even more of a challenge. However, Scott Tolzien is not completely without experience, and has a wealth of it playing in the cold of year-end Wisconsin. With a power back and a west-coast based offensive scheme, the playoffs could actually be in reach. Jordy Nelson boasts a good catch radius to snag any arrant passes, while also serving as an excellent possession target. The same can be said about Davante Adams. Randall Cobb is the ultimate run-after-the-catch threat, and makes quarterback’s lives easier. With an increased work load for Lacy, and an emphasis on short, quick, passes, Tolzien could conceivably serve as a game manager for a team that could scrape its way into the playoffs.

Hilmi: The Green Bay Packers can make the playoffs even if Rodgers goes down in the first snap of the season. This is because Scott Tolzien is the best kept secret in the backup quarterback world. In the preseason, he should show that he is a capable number two. His supporting staff is great, and should he prove to be an above average game manager, the rest of the team should be able capture a wild card position. That said, making it to the playoffs is all the Packers can hope to achieve without the reigning MVP. The days of the sub-elite passer leading his team to a Super Bowl win are long gone. The last such quarterbacks were Brad Johnson (2003, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Trent Dilfer (2000, Baltimore Ravens). Both played under less pass-friendly rules and both had phenomenal defenses. While Green Bay’s defense can be called young or dynamic, it’s definitely nowhere close to phenomenal.

This concludes our first installment of Curds of Wisdom. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Let our guys know in the comments so you can have a conversation with them.

Also, please Like us on Facebook, Follow us on Twitter, and follow Michael and Hilmi on Twitter to get their Green Bay Packers updates.

Author: Rob Wegley

Co-Owner of The Runner Sports, Senior Editor for The Runner Sports, Writer for The Runner Sports focused on the NFL and the NBA. Located in the Chicago area. Professional journalist since 2012.

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