The Arizona Fall League sprouted in 1992 and generally provides an autumn haven for MLB’s hot prospects. It’s no different this year, as the Houston Astros have placed seven of their prized organizational players on the Scottsdale Scorpions.
While most in the AFL are Class AA and Class AAA players, teams can also opt to send two players below AA. Prospects from the Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, and Astros fill out the Scorpions’ roster this year, as they make Scottsdale Stadium their home.
The AFL season began October 9 and lasts six weeks, ending November 17 with the Championship Game. A mid-season Fall Stars Game, Saturday, November 3, provides an exhibition of the league’s best.
Astros As Scorpions
Houston minor leaguers on the Scottsdale roster include pitchers Forrest Whitley (Astros’ second-ranked prospect, according to MLB Pipeline), JB Bukauskas (#8), Trent Thornton (#24), and Erasmo Pinales. Position players are Ronnie Dawson, Drew Ferguson, and Abraham Toro-Hernandez.
Strengthening Their Starting Hand
Three of the four pitchers the Astros placed in the AFL (with the exception of reliever Pinales) seem to be chosen purposefully to continue their system progression as starters.
This wouldn’t seem all that noteworthy were it not for the fact that Houston has seen fit, the last couple of years, to nurture starters in the minors, only to bring them up as perennial relievers in the Astros’ bullpen.
Joe Musgrove (traded to Pittsburgh last offseason for starter Gerrit Cole), Chris Devenski, Josh James (who may be moved into the rotation in 2019), and Cionel Perez are a few recent examples. Manager AJ Hinch has also famously used career-long starters in the bullpen recently, with Collin McHugh and Lance McCullers, Jr being notable examples.
With Dallas Keuchel likely to go in free agency, and Houston declining a qualifying offer to Charlie Morton, any combination of these three AFL starters could punch their MLB ticket in 2019.
JB Bukauskas, The “Quiet Bulldog”
The Astros’ #8-ranked prospect out of the University of North Carolina is a hard-throwing, right-handed six-footer who’s garnered MLB comparisons to the New York Yankees’ Sonny Gray. Bukauskas features a fastball that sits consistently at 93-94 mph, and tops out at 98 mph, with a hard breaking slider that can hit 86 mph. He’s developed an improved changeup, the third pitch he’ll need, as the Astros didn’t draft him to be a reliever.
MLB Network’s Al Leiter even compared Bukauskas to McCullers, in fact, as “on a fast track to the big leagues.” The network’s Peter Gammons also has no problem calling JB’s slider “Chris Archer good.”
“He’s a young junior with a three-pitch mix, plus his fastball we’ve gotten up to 98,” Mike Elias said following Bukauskas’ 2017 drafting as the 15th overall pick. The Astros’ director of scouting and player development continued his assessment: “He has a plus slider, and a changeup he hasn’t used a ton at the college level because he hasn’t had to, but we view as a future above-average pitch as well. To get that kind of power stuff in the middle of the first round is a coup for us, and we had him rated as early first-round talent.”
Astros’ area scout Tim Bittner called Bukauskas a “quiet bulldog.”
JB’s AFL Progress
In a mid-October game, the six-foot, 196-pound Bukauskas threw four scoreless innings with four strikeouts to lead Scottsdale to an 8-0 victory over Peoria. He allowed two hits.
On November 1, the 22-year-old stretched out to five innings in his start, yielding four hits, a walk, and a run while striking out four, and lowering his ERA to 2.70. Bukauskas has allowed one earned run or less in three of his four AFL starts.
Through games of November 1, Bukauskas is tied for fourth in the AFL with 18 strikeouts, trailing Houston’s top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley’s league-leading 23. JB comes up third in the AFL in innings pitched, with 16.2, just a third of an inning shy of second place Whitley’s 17.
Curiously, two Astros pitchers have rightfully earned spots on the roster of the AFL Fall Stars Game, November 3, but neither is Bukauskas. Congratulations to Forrest Whitley and Trent Thornton.
The Future for Bukauskas
Bukauskas rose so quickly through five levels of Houston’s system in 2018, a nosebleed could’ve been excused. His 14 combined starts ended at Houston’s Double-A Corpus Christi, with a 2.14 ERA in 59 IP, totaling a 10.8 K/9 rate.
Bukauskas’ work, though, was abbreviated in 2018, as he was involved in an offseason car accident, resulting in an injury that shelved him until July. His AFL assignment, then, is motivated by Houston’s desire to have him “catch up” a bit on time missed, similar to Whitley and his time lost due to his early 2018 50-game suspension.
Look for Bukauskas to start 2019 back at AA Corpus Christi, having only put in one six-inning start for the Hooks last season. A quick trip up the ladder to AAA Round Rock could happen by early summer, though.
Based on recent history, it’ll be interesting to see if the Astros can resist or avoid bringing Bukauskas up as a September call-up solely as a bullpen piece… and, leaving him there.
Related: AFL Astros 2018, Rotation Starter Pack: Trent Thornton, Ace of Club
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