After The Posting Issue Is Resolved, Shohei Otani Seems Destined For The Bronx

The New York Yankees have been busy during the offseason thus far making minor trades that have larger implications. Since the end of the World Series, the New York Yankees have made three trades of potential 40-man roster players. Among the players that the Yankees have traded away include Garrett Cooper (who the Yankees acquired during the 2017 season), Ronald Herrera (made his MLB debut in 2017), and Nick Rumbelow (pitched in 17 games back in 2015). All of these players were ones who were vying for (or on) the 40-man roster for the Yankees. With the Rule 5 Draft coming up, Brian Cashman has traded away unnecessary players to protect certain prospects that the Yankees want to keep. However, the bigger news from one of the three trades is what the Yankees received in the Cooper trade. That exchange has large implications about Shohei Otani.

In exchange for Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, the Miami Marlins sent over a right-handed prospect Michael King and $250 thousand of international bonus pool money. To some, it might seem odd to bother about covering this trade unless one is a family member of any of the three players traded. However, the most important thing from this trade is the $250 thousand that the Marlins gave the Yankees. Once again, it seems inconsequential, especially to a franchise who has over $190 million in player payroll per season. However, that $250 thousand could prove to be more important to any of the three human pieces that were involved in the trade.

Changes to the Posting System

After an agreement was reached between the MLB and the Nippon Professional Baseball League, the system for posting Japanese players changed. Back in the mid-2000s, MLB teams would bid money to the Japanese team that the desired player was signed for and then the highest bid would earn the right to negotiate with the player. For example, back in 2006, the Boston Red Sox outbid the Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees for the right to negotiate a contract with Daisuke Matsuzaka. That bid, an outstanding $51 million, was not apart of the contract, though. The Red Sox signed Matsuzaka to a six-year, $52 million deal. In total, the Red Sox spent $103 million dollars on Matsuzaka.

Nowadays, that total does not seem so outlandish. But, the fact that MLB teams went into a bidding war for only the right to talk to a player was ridiculous. Between the signings of Yu Darvish (who had a posting fee of $51 million) and Masahiro Tanaka, an agreement was reached between the MLB and Nippon in 2013. The agreement stated that the maximum bid that a Japanese team could receive for posting one of their players is $20 million. That was the posting fee that was paid for Tanaka (2013) and Kenta Maeda (2015).

Shohei Otani is a Special Case

Now that the posting system is resolved, any team wanting to sign Japanese superstar Shohei Otani should have a relatively easy go about it. Well, that would be wrong. While it would seem that Otani’s free agency should be treated the same as Tanaka’s, that is simply not going to be the case. Why? When Tanaka was posted, he was 25. Otani is only 23 right now, which screws with the system.

Due to the new rules of the MLB’s collective bargaining agreement concerning international players, an international player under the age of 25 cannot be signed to a contract worth more than $3.535 million per season. That is why the international bonus pool money is important here. That pool of money is where the teams vying for Shohei Otani will be allowed to pull from in order to sign the Japanese sensation. Before the Cooper trade, the Yankees were only able to give Otani $3.25 million (with $1 million of that money coming from the Oakland A’s in the Sonny Gray trade). Now, the Yankees can offer the second most money to Otani, trailing the Texas Rangers by $35 thousand. Have a headache yet?

Shohei Otani is a Special Player

Now on to the baseball side of things. You know that Shohei Otani is a special player when 60 Minutes does a segment about the guy and calls him the Japanese Babe Ruth. In Japan, Otani is a five-year veteran. He won the Pacific League MVP back in 2016, a season where he batted .322 with 22 home runs and posted an ERA of 1.86 in 140 innings of work. Over his young Japanese career, Otani has been a better pitcher than hitter. His career ERA is 2.52 with a record of 42-15. He has been a solid hitter, with a career average of .286 in 403 games. However, his hitting has been a recent development (at an elite level), with his last two seasons being the only times he batted above .300.

Otani’s 2017 was not a positive one for him, though. Despite a .332 batting average and a 3.20 ERA, Otani missed all of the 2017 World Baseball Classic and a large chunk of his professional season with an ankle injury. Anytime there is a health concern with an international player, that potential could hurt their chances with the interest from the MLB team. However, since Otani is touted as the new phenom to come from Japan, the interest is still there in droves. That includes interest from the New York Yankees.

Yankees Building a Stacked Rotation

Brian Cashman has spent a lot of time over the past calendar year talking about getting under the luxury tax threshold and waiting for the 2018-19 free agency class to start splurging money. Plus, there is no concrete evidence that the Yankees are necessarily building up their international bonus pool money to sign Shohei Otani. However, I was not around to hear a tree fall behind my house the other day and I am confident it still made a sound when it did. The Yankees will pursue Otani if he is posted (depending on how negotiations go). That is almost a fact. There are two reasons for this: The 2018-19 free agent starting pitching class is not that impressive after Clayton Kershaw and if Otani is cannot miss talent, why not go for him?

Now, let us assume that Otani is actually the real deal and pitches like Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka did when they came over. Imagine putting that pitcher in the same rotation as Luis Severino, Sonny Gray, Tanaka, and Jordan Montgomery. That would be the best AL starting rotation. Not only that, but all of those pitchers would be under the age of 30, with three of the five being younger than 25. So, if everything goes according to plan, that would give the Yankees a great rotation for years to come. That is why the Yankees are going after Otani. It potentially nails down the top three of their rotation for the next five seasons.

Bring In Godzilla

The New York Yankees have had previous success when it comes to bringing in Japenese players. There are have been three notable Japanese signings for the Yankees, and two of the three worked out tremendously. Hideki Matsui was the first one, who immediately became a fan favorite and a Yankees hero when he won the 2009 World Series MVP as a DH. There never needs to be mention of Kei Igawa ever in Yankees’ history and everybody is watching the payoff to the Tanaka signing.

The reason I bring up Matsui is that the Yankees will need his help in luring over Otani to the Bronx. Since there is a cap (a low one at that) on the initial contract for Otani, the decision on where to go will come down to preference. With the front-runners looking to be between the Texas Rangers and the Yankees, the Yankees will need Matsui to go to bat for them one more time. Matsui, who already serves as a special adviser to Brian Cashman, has already said that he is willing to help suede Otani to New York if he is posted, according to the New York Daily News.

The Downside

With a potential two-way star coming in from Japan at a low cost, how can there be a downside to Shohei Otani coming to New York? Truly, there is not a huge one. More so, the downside will be more so one of personal feelings toward a certain player: C.C. Sabathia. If Otani signs with the Yankees, that definitely puts a nail in Sabathia’s career with the Yankees. All five spots in the rotation will be taken and there would be no reason to sign the big lefty. That will be sad news since Sabathia is a Yankees’ fan favorite who truly seemed to enjoy every moment he had in pinstripes.

On top of that, whoever is the team who ends up signing Otani will immediately have a cast of doubt thrown at them from the rest of the MLB. Since there is a cap of $3.535 million on the contract for Otani, it will be assumed that whoever signs him made another deal in additon to the official one. It is almost a guarantee that Otani will only sign for two years in his initial contract that way he can earn his market value once he turns 25. However, it would be shocking for Otani not to be re-signing with the team who initially signed him at that point unless he proves to be a flop.

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