Santa Claus must have been dressed in a Houston Astros uniform when he slid down the Yankee Stadium chimney this Christmas. In 2019, the Astros gave two unintentional gifts to their perennially-pinstriped foes.
One was the alleged sign-stealing charge now being investigated by MLB. This is giving millions of Yankees fans, these days, the feverish license to finally dump Bronx jeers and razz-berries in the direction of another team —any team- instead of constantly being the despised recipients of those countless rounds of boos, however undeserved they may or may not be.
The other was the lump of Cole recently dropped ceremoniously into the Yanks’ pin-striped stocking. The December signing of super-ace Gerrit Cole by New York not only represents the reason all pre-season World Series hype is flying east for the summer, but his loss signals a massive renovation ahead for Houston’s starting rotation.
Additionally, the free agent signing by the Cincinnati Reds of lefty Wade Miley leaves 167 more rotational innings the Astros will have to find a way to fill in 2020.
The summer could be brutal amid all the construction, Houston fans; hard hats are recommended for home games.
Solid Foundation
The good news is that the Astros are still frontin’ with the reigning Cy Young award winner (and 2018’s runner-up) in Justin Verlander. He’ll be rotation anchor, of course, sporting a 21-6 record and AL second-bests 2.58 ERA and 300 Ks from his 2019 campaign. Turning 37 when pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, his 223 innings led the league, as did his BAA of .172.
Baseball Reference projects for Verlander a 15-7/3.12 ERA with 238 Ks in 193 IP in 2020. Rather pedestrian numbers for an ace whose designer jeans pockets the ‘Stros are shoving $28 million into.
Say what you will about the Astros’ rationale in acquiring Zack Greinke last July from the Arizona Diamondbacks for four prospects, the real reason, GM Jeff Luhnow will tell you, was to prepare for the eventual and likely loss of Cole in the offseason. Greinke, 36, will slip into the #2 rotation spot behind JV, pulling his combined 18-5 record and 2.93 ERA in 208 IP with him.
The projected 2020 vision for Greinke includes a 14-7 record with a 3.45 ERA, and 174 Ks in 185 innings. Plus, he’s hoping you won’t tell Verlander he’ll be making about $7 million more, this year, than the former Detroit Tiger.
“Realized eventual regression” is a phrase Houston hopes they don’t have to hear about these two aging aces come October.
LMJ, The Comeback Kid
Using all of 2019 to rehab his Tommy John surgery, right-hander Lance McCullers Jr has done all his homework to get ready to climb the mound in 2020: Worked out at the team’s West Palm Beach Spring Training facility, as well as Minute Maid, and has cheered on the team directly from the dugout at most games.
He hit 90 mph on his heater in late October in his first live batting practice (and has since bumped it up to low 90s), and while he rarely throws his four-seamer, he used to throw it in the mid-90s. Known for his knockout, high-spin-rate curve, Spring Training will reveal which pitches he’ll be able to comfortably rely upon moving forward.
“I’ve been dyin’…I’m ready for the season to start tomorrow, if it could,” the 26-year-old confided to MLB.com recently. Insert LMJ smack dab in the middle of the rotation, and hope for anything that comes close to his 2018 stat line of 10-6/3.86/142 Ks in 128.1 IP.
A 2020 postseason scene we’d like to see: McCullers, who propelled the ‘Stros into the 2017 World Series by screwing several Yankees into the ground with two dozen consecutive curveballs, duking it out with Cole.
The Rotation Rear Will Be Tough to Crack
Finding a pitcher ready to eat the number of innings needed to fill out spots #4 and #5 in the rotation will be job #1 at Spring Training. Manager AJ Hinch might as well build a merry-go-round near the mound on their West Palm Beach back-field, as a solid handful of options are waiting their turn.
Southpaws Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers) and the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray have been mentioned as possible rotation trade targets for Houston in fairly recent memory.
Not wanting to approach the second level of the luxury tax threshold ($228 million), though, might limit the team’s choices regarding picking up a veteran, so these in-house arms are poised to do what it takes to step up:
Forrest Whitley
And, you thought the 2019 arrival of slugger Yordan Alvarez was overdue and highly-anticipated? Forrest Whitley just turned 22 in September, but as Houston’s top 2016 draft pick out of high school, the 6’7″ right-hander might just be ready to put his prodigious talents together for a run at the rotation. He’s Houston’s top prospect, and MLB.com ranks him #16 in their overall Top 100 in baseball.
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 65 | Control: 50 | Overall: 60
Whitley’s struggles the past couple years, both personal and professional, have been well-documented in this space and will bring you up-to-date with the San Antonio native. He pitched at four levels in Houston’s system last season, not only with mixed results, but with sample sizes so small as to make projections (and Rookie of the Year predictions) pointless.
Related: Career Advancement-Why Whitley’s MLB Debut Didn’t Happen in 2019
Jose Urquidy
A 24-year-old native of Mazatlan, Mexico, Jose Urquidy is probably the odds-on favorite to win a rotation spot coming out of spring camp… not so much for his numbers, which aren’t shabby, but for his grit and fearlessness on the mound. It’s said he bites his nails, but only before he hammers them into his backyard fence.
Urquidy confounds hitters with a 93 mph four-seam fastball thrown from slightly different arm slots, a changeup at 84, an 83 mph slider, and an under-80 curve.
Urquidy started seven games in nine appearances for Houston in 2019, logging a 3.95 ERA in 41 innings. His .241 BAA could’ve been lower, but his seven walks yielded against 40 Ks is impressive out of the blocks. Then came his postseason coming-out party:
Ten innings total with a combined 0.90 ERA, 12 Ks, two walks, with a .237 BAA in all three series (ALDS, ALCS, World Series) against the Tampa Bay Rays, Yankees, and Washington Nationals.
Also Getting a Spring Look Will Be…
Josh James, Rogelio Armenteros, and lefty Cionel Perez have all been groomed in the Astros’ system to be starters, but the bulk of each’s work in Houston has been out of the bullpen. Any thought Hinch puts into considering any of these three will have to include stretching them out to contribute multiple innings.
Related: Astros Send Armenteros, Perez, James to 2019 Annual Rookie Program
Hoping They’re Not Forgotten
Left-hander Framber Valdez and righty Francis Martes are outliers in this rotation free-for-all, but Hinch will likely want to give them enough spring work to see if they’d be rotation ready, bullpen pieces, or simply starting 2020 at AAA Round Rock.
Both Armenteros and Valdez, with an eye toward spring 2020, put in work as starters for their respective teams in MLB’s Dominican Winter League in November and December.