Defending champion Naomi Osaka looks at home in the Californian desert. And if she can repeat her run to the title at the Indian Wells Open, she will only strengthen her increasingly vice-like grip on the top of the women’s game. But standing between her and a place in the last eight is the in-form Belinda Bencic, recently crowned champion at the Dubai Tennis Championships. Bencic is a player with the quality, and perhaps crucially, the belief that she can beat anyone on her day.
History
This will be the second meeting between Osaka and Bencic. With this match set to be contested on Stadium 2 at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, it will be played in rather grander circumstances than their first, which came in 2013 in the first round at a clay court WTA 25k event in Pelham, Alabama. Both Osaka and Bencic were then unknown teenagers, but it was the Japanese who emerged with the victory, dismissing Bencic in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3.
Path to the fourth round
Osaka, who lost in her first time out to Kristina Mladenovic in Dubai, returned to winning ways by avenging that defeat at the hands of Mladenovic with a comprehensive 6-3, 6-4 win over the Frenchwoman. That win set up a third-round clash with 25th seed Danielle Collins of the USA, a semifinalist at the Australian Open in January. But In Indian Wells, Collins was swiftly overwhelmed by Osaka’s power, with the top seed recording a 6-4, 6-2 win to book her place in the last 16.
Bencic, seeded 23rd, also received a first-round bye. As a result, she took to the court for the first time since beating Petra Kvitova in the final in Dubai against Alison Van Uytvanck in the second round. Bencic was rarely troubled in that match, dismissing the Belgian’s challenge to win 6-1, 6-4. She then faced Ekaterina Alexandrova, who had impressed in upsetting 13th seed Caroline Wozniacki 7-5, 2-6, 7-5 in the second round. But Bencic was comfortable throughout against the Russian, winning 6-4, 6-2.
How do they match up?
Both Osaka and Bencic are excellent ball-strikers, capable of doing damage off both wings from almost anywhere in the court. Osaka is particularly powerful. Indeed, she is surely the most effective offensive player currently in the women’s game, as illustrated by her position at the very top of the rankings. Her forehand is her best shot, with Osaka devastatingly powerful off that wing when allowed time on the ball. But her backhand is a useful shot in its own right and she has been serving impressively so far in the desert.
Bencic, like the rest of the tour, cannot match Osaka for raw power. But she does have penetrating groundstrokes, with her backhand a rock-solid and reliable weapon. To stand a realistic chance of victory, she will need to trust in her shots and play aggressively from the outset. Trying to withstand the power of Osaka is a fool’s errand, but if Bencic meets fire with fire and steps in to try and strike winners early on in the rally, she may just be able to unsettle Osaka and find a path to victory.
Prediction
With both women arriving into this match in such good form, it promises to be a high-quality affair. Indeed, Bencic is arguably one of the few players currently on tour who has the game to really give Osaka pause. However, whether she has the game to beat her is another matter entirely. Of late, Osaka, her loss in Dubai aside, has managed to find a way to win against even the very best even under the most intense pressure. Expect her to do so again, just. Osaka in three.