Twins’ Path To The Playoffs In The Second Half

The Minnesota Twins’ second half of the season started with a whimper. They lost their fifth consecutive game, this time with only two hits.

Right now, the team’s playoff chances look pretty bleak. At the conclusion Tuesday’s 0-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins are 10.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and 17.5 behind Seattle for the second Wild Card slot.

Not only do they have those major deficits, but overcoming them would require some serious leapfrogging. The Detroit Tigers are ahead of the Twins by .5 games in each race, and the Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, and Oakland Athletics are all between the Twins and Seattle.

Put another way, the Twins only have three teams behind them in the race.

For now, ignore all the teams between the Twins and the two teams they have to catch to make the playoffs. When the Mariners were at the halfway mark in their season, they were 50-31. Double that, and they would end the season 100-62. Cleveland was 44-37, double that and they are 88-74 on the year.

At 35-46, the Twins would need to go 53-28 to tie Cleveland’s mark. And they’ve already got one of those games in the loss column after game 82.

It’s not totally insane to think the Twins could go 53-27 in their final 80 games. It’s just under winning two out of every three games. It’s very close to insane though. That means winning every single series for the rest of the year, or at least banking a few sweeps to make up for series losses.

And that’s assuming Cleveland, a team that has gotten much better as of late, won’t improve on their first half.

None of that feels good. So here’s the deal. The Twins need a giant win streak. Remember in 2017 when Cleveland won 22 games in a row? Or when the Los Angeles Dodgers went 20-3 in July to make an 11-game losing streak in September not matter?

The Twins need one of those. A giant winning streak that makes the pitiful first half seem like a distant memory.

But when will it happen?

How does Wednesday sound?

If the team can eke one out against the Brewers, they will return home from a 2-7 road trip. But once they’re at Target Field, they will play 11 games against three teams at .500 or worse, including two teams actually lower than them in the standings, the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals.

Then they’ll have the All-Star Break, where (sadly) most of the team will get a nice rest to continue the winning streak.

After the mandatory rest period, the Twins will take on the Royals again, then the Blue Jays. That’s 17 straight games against teams the Twins are, or should be, better than.

Should the Twins win everyone of those games (counting the Brewers finale), they’ll be 53-47.

Should they just go 15-3 in those games, they’ll be 50-50. They’d likely have to go 38-24 to tie Cleveland’s hypothetical win total. That’s easier, though depressingly not way easier, than the 53-27 they need to go right now. Of course, Cleveland will probably play better in the second half than they did in the first, so that mark will have to be better.

One way to make that not happen is to play well against them. The Twins have gone 6-3 against the AL Central leaders thus far. Winning all 10 of the remaining matchups would mean the Twins would just have to edge Cleveland out by one game in the games they don’t play against each other. Cleveland does have more games against good teams than Minnesota does, so it’s not completely crazy.

So those are the three simple paths to the playoffs. Win two of every three games from here on out. Win 15 to 18 out of the next 18 games and then win about two-thirds of the games after that. Sweep Cleveland in the remainder of the season series, and then play slightly better than them in the other games.

Oh, that doesn’t even include Wild Card scenarios. Scenarios that are even harder to accomplish (without luck from everyone else really struggling)… This is definitely daunting.

But the Twins are up to the challenge. Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar will keep being good. Jorge Polanco is back. Brian Dozier will do his usual second half dominance. Joe Mauer will take some steps up and be the steady hitter he always is. Byron Buxton is about to be back and amazing. All six big additions from the offseason will get better. Robbie Grossman will fulfill his destiny. José Berríos will pitch his way to a Cy Young.

Yep. It’s going to be an amazing run to the playoffs.

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